EUR/USD Up 4 Pips, in a Downtrend Over Past 30 Days; Pin Bar Pattern Appearing on Chart

EUR/USD Price Recap

EUR/USD, currently priced near 1.09151, is up 4 pips 0.04% since yesterday, marking a reversal from the day prior — and the end of a 3 day negative run. The price move occurred on volume — and we’re using the number of tick price changes as a proxy for volume — that was up 7.42% from the day prior, but down 29.06% from the same day the week before. Relative to other instruments in the Forex asset class, EUR/USD ranked 21st yesterday in terms of percentage price change. The price chart of EUR/USD below illustrates.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

Notably, the current price of EUR/USD is sitting close to its 20, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages; moving average crosses often indicate a change in momentum, so this may be worth keeping an eye on. As for the alignment of the moving averages, well, it’s a bit mixed up; the 20, 50, 100, and 200 do not progress from largest to smallest, or vice versa. The closest is the 20 day average, which is 122.3 pips away. The clearest trend exists on the 30 day timeframe, which shows price moving down over that time. For additional context, note that price has gone down 7 out of the past 10 days. Oh, and one last thing: if you trade off of candlesticks, note that we’re seeing pin bar pattern appearing here.

A final note on correlations: over the past week, EUR/USD has been most correlated with EUR/CAD — not terribly surprising, given that EUR is in both currency pairs. Alternatively, regarding pairs with the lowest correlation to EUR/USD? Well, look no further than USD/HKD if you’re focused on just this past week, or USD/CHF for a look at a broader, two week window.

The View From Around the Web

We’re seeing some traders come out with interesting conviction on EURUSD, with 39 buy signals on our radar and 10 sell signals. This imputes a buy/sell ratio of 3.9, which is bullish. As for the rationale, technical traders seem to be citing the appearance of a fibonacci technical pattern. Here’s a piece we found on tradingview.com; below is a short snippet from it to give you a taste.

Hidden bullish divergence occurs when the RSI Indicator forms a lower low and price produces a potential higher low….Modest buying occurred from 1.0879/1.0906 Tuesday, recently forming a robust bullish candle that closed a whisker off its highs….Should H4 price brush aside the fact we have monthly price eyeing lower levels and a daily resistance area in the mix, the initial upside target out of an AB=CD bullish formation generally sits around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of legs A-D: 1.1000.