NZD/USD Down 10 Pips in Last Hour, 3 Day Up Streak Snapped; in a Downtrend Over Past 30 Days
Trend traders will want to observe that the strongest trend appears on the 30 day horizon; over that time period, price has been moving down.
(Last Updated May 19, 2022 0:25 GMT)
Here’s a look at the main macroeconomic data coming out later today that may impact the forex market.
Metric Name | Reference Period | Currency | Date | Time | Forecast | Outcome |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Australia Unemployment Rate | Apr 2022 | Australian Dollar | 2022-05-19 | 01:30 GMT | 3.9% | |
Euro Area Construction Output YoY | Mar 2022 | Euro | 2022-05-19 | 09:00 GMT | ||
United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence | May 2022 | British Pound | 2022-05-19 | 23:01 GMT | -39 | |
Japan Inflation Rate YoY | Apr 2022 | Japanese Yen | 2022-05-19 | 23:30 GMT | ||
New Zealand Balance of Trade | Apr 2022 | New Zealand Dollar | 2022-05-19 | 22:45 GMT | ||
United States Existing Home Sales | Apr 2022 | US Dollar | 2022-05-19 | 14:00 GMT | 5.65M | |
South Africa Interest Rate Decision | 2022 | South African Rand | 2022-05-19 | 13:00 GMT | 4.75% |
The chart below summarizes the price news by currency, showing which currency strengthened vs which weakened when equally averaged against other currencies. We see that ZAR was the big outperformer, changing by 1.81%. On the flip side, TRY fared the worst, changing by -2.16%.
And in terms of interesting streaks, EURTRY, USDTRY and GBPCHF have now rallied 8 out of the past ten trading days.
Currency Pair | Moving Average Period Crossed |
---|---|
GBPNZD | 200 |
GBPJPY | 50 |
EURJPY | 50 |
CADJPY | 20 |
USDJPY | 20 |
NZDCHF | 20 |
EURGBP | 20 |
USDCAD | 20 |
From the perspective of the alignment of moving averages — meaning where moving averages are ordered by their duration — we see that USDTRY has perhaps the strongest trend. See the chart below.
One other point on moving averages: instruments in the Forex asset class that are near their 200 day moving average are GBPCHF, GBPNZD, EURCHF, EURNZD and EURGBP.
The Bank of International Settlements helps central banks coordinate their policies. As such, it can be an important institution for forex traders to monitor. Here is the latest from them:
Link | Publication Date | Summary |
---|---|---|
Commodity market disruptions, growth and inflation | 2022-05-18 | The BIS hosts nine international organisations engaged in standard setting and the pursuit of financial stability through the Basel Process. |
Banking in the shadow of Bitcoin? The institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies | 2022-05-18 | This “shadow crypto financial system” serves both retail and institutional clients, such as dedicated investment funds.While the role of retail investors has received much attention, we know less about the role of financial intermediaries in this sector. |
Christine Lagarde: Challenges along Europe’s road | 2022-05-15 | Speech by Ms Christine Lagarde , President of the European Central Bank, at the international conference to mark the 30th anniversary of Banka Slovenije, Ljubljana, 11 May 2022
It is a pleasure to be in Ljubljana today to discuss “the road already travelled and contemporary challenges”.In that period, Europe has faced repeated shocks, each one different. |
When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like right or wrong or win or lose no longer have the same significance.
–EURCHF
Trend traders will want to observe that the strongest trend appears on the 30 day horizon; over that time period, price has been moving down.
It’s been a feast for bears operating on an hourly timeframe, as nzdchf has now gone down 12 of the past 14 hours.
This imputes a buy/sell ratio of 0, which is quite bearish.
Relative to other instruments in the forex asset class, nzdcad ranked 19th the previous day in terms of percentage price change.
Volatility for gbpusd has been contracting over the past two weeks relative to volatility over the past month.
As for the rationale, technical traders seem to be citing the appearance of head and shoulders technical patterns.
The clearest trend exists on the 90 day timeframe, which shows price moving down over that time.
And for candlestick traders, a special treat: there is a pin bar pattern showing up on the charts as well.
If you’re a trend trader, consider that the strongest clear trend on the hourly chart exists on the 100 hour timeframe.
It’s been a feast for bears operating on an hourly timeframe, as eurusd has now gone down 8 of the past 10 hours.