(Last Updated January 20, 2022 0:25 GMT)
Here’s a look at the main macroeconomic data coming out later today that may impact the forex market.
| Metric Name | Reference Period | Currency | Date | Time | Forecast | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia Unemployment Rate | Dec 2021 | Australian Dollar | 2022-01-20 | 00:30 GMT | 4.5% | |
| Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | NA | Swiss Franc | 2022-01-20 | 00:00 GMT | ||
| China Loan Prime Rate 1Y | 2022 | Chinese Yuan | 2022-01-20 | 01:15 GMT | ||
| Euro Area Inflation Rate YoY Final | Dec 2021 | Euro | 2022-01-20 | 10:00 GMT | 5% | |
| Japan Inflation Rate YoY | Dec 2021 | Japanese Yen | 2022-01-20 | 23:30 GMT | ||
| Mexico Unemployment Rate | Dec 2021 | Mexican Peso | 2022-01-20 | 12:00 GMT | ||
| Norway Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision | 2022 | Norwegian Krone | 2022-01-20 | 09:00 GMT | 0.5% | |
| New Zealand Business NZ PMI | Dec 2021 | New Zealand Dollar | 2022-01-20 | 21:30 GMT | ||
| Turkey TCMB Interest Rate Decision | 2022 | Turkish Lira | 2022-01-20 | 11:00 GMT | 14% | |
| United States Existing Home Sales | Dec 2021 | US Dollar | 2022-01-20 | 15:00 GMT | 6.44M |
The chart below summarizes the price news by currency, showing which currency strengthened vs which weakened when equally averaged against other currencies. Of note is that USD was the outperformer for the day, changing by 0.5%. On the flip side, SEK fared the worst, changing by -0.98%.
| Currency Pair | Moving Average Period Crossed |
|---|---|
| CADCHF | 200 |
| AUDJPY | 100 |
| ZARJPY | 100 |
| EURAUD | 50 |
| GBPCAD | 50 |
| USDNOK | 20 |
| CHFJPY | 20 |
| EURCHF | 20 |
| GBPJPY | 20 |
| EURUSD | 20 |
From the perspective of the alignment of moving averages — meaning where moving averages are ordered by their duration — we see that USDTRY has perhaps the strongest trend. See the chart below.
Lastly, instruments in the Forex asset class that are near their 200 day moving average are CADCHF, USDCHF, AUDNZD, USDHKD, USDCAD, AUDJPY and EURNZD.
The Bank of International Settlements helps central banks coordinate their policies. As such, it can be an important institution for forex traders to monitor. Here is the latest from them:
| Link | Publication Date | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Bank opacity – patterns and implications | 2022-01-19 | We demonstrate that the degree of bank opacity varied considerably across bank nationalities and counterparty sectors – it was highest for European periphery banks’ sovereign exposures and European core banks’ private sector exposures.We also investigate the impact of bank opacity on bank funding, lending and profitability
We find that investors were not fully informed about bank lending portfolios. |
| Digital currencies and the soul of money | 2022-01-18 | The soul of money is trust.For central bankers, the Gretchenfrage has always been: what is the soul of money? |
| Monetary policy and endogenous financial crises | 2022-01-18 | Third, financial crises may occur after a long period of unexpectedly loose monetary policy as the central bank abruptly reverses course.We ask whether a central bank should turn aside from its objective of price stability to promote financial stability. |
Also of note is that on a 14 day basis price appears to be forming a base — which could the stage for it being a support/resistance level going forward.
As for the alignment of the moving averages, well, it’s a bit mixed up; the 20, 50, 100, and 200 do not progress from largest to smallest, or vice versa.
The clearest trend exists on the 90 day timeframe, which shows price moving down over that time.
Regarding the trend, note that the strongest trend exists on the 100 hour timeframe.
It’s been a feast for bears operating on an hourly timeframe, as gbpusd has now gone down 8 of the past 10 hours.
Regarding the trend, note that the strongest trend exists on the 50 hour timeframe.
Volatility for gbpjpy has been contracting over the past two weeks relative to volatility over the past month.
Or to simplify this another way, note that out of the past 30 days gbpchf’s price has gone up 17 them.
As for the alignment of the moving averages, well, it’s a bit mixed up; the 20, 50, 100, and 200 do not progress from largest to smallest, or vice versa.
Volatility for gbpaud has been contracting over the past two weeks relative to volatility over the past month.