(Last Updated January 21, 2022 0:26 GMT)
Here’s a look at the main macroeconomic data coming out later today that may impact the forex market.
| Metric Name | Reference Period | Currency | Date | Time | Forecast | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia HIA New Home Sales MoM | Dec 2021 | Australian Dollar | 2022-01-21 | 05:30 GMT | ||
| Canada Retail Sales MoM | Nov 2021 | Canadian Dollar | 2022-01-21 | 13:30 GMT | 1.2% | |
| Switzerland World Economic Forum Annual Meeting | NA | Swiss Franc | 2022-01-21 | 00:00 GMT | ||
| Euro Area ECB Fernandez-Bollo Speech | NA | Euro | 2022-01-21 | 10:30 GMT | ||
| United Kingdom Gfk Consumer Confidence | Jan 2022 | British Pound | 2022-01-21 | 00:01 GMT | -15 | -19 |
| Turkey Consumer Confidence | Jan 2022 | Turkish Lira | 2022-01-21 | 07:00 GMT |
The chart below summarizes the price news by currency, showing which currency strengthened vs which weakened when equally averaged against other currencies. We see that ZAR was the big outperformer, moving by 1.04%. Alternatively, MXN moving by -0.55%, making it the worst performer of the bunch.
| Currency Pair | Moving Average Period Crossed |
|---|---|
| CADCHF | 200 |
| ZARJPY | 100 |
| AUDJPY | 100 |
| USDMXN | 20 |
| AUDNZD | 20 |
| USDNOK | 20 |
From the perspective of the alignment of moving averages — meaning where moving averages are ordered by their duration — we see that TRYJPY has perhaps the strongest trend. See the chart below.
Lastly, instruments AUDJPY, USDCAD, USDHKD, EURNZD, USDCHF and CADCHF are close to their 200 day moving average.
The Bank of International Settlements helps central banks coordinate their policies. As such, it can be an important institution for forex traders to monitor. Here is the latest from them:
| Link | Publication Date | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| Gatekeeping the gatekeepers: when big techs and fintechs own banks – benefits, risks and policy options | 2022-01-20 | To ascertain their risk characteristics, we categorise the universe of tech firms that provide financial services into three groups: standalone fintechs, large diversified fintechs and big techs.Following the 2007–09 financial crisis, big techs and fintechs started to offer financial services without the need for or interest in a banking license. |
| Challenges for central banks | 2022-01-19 | So, I would like to devote my remarks to highlighting the main challenges that central banks will face in the next few years.In the context of the pandemic, the actions of central banks, together with fiscal support and supervisory flexibility, have ushered the global economy into a strong, fast recovery. |
| Bank opacity – patterns and implications | 2022-01-19 | We demonstrate that the degree of bank opacity varied considerably across bank nationalities and counterparty sectors – it was highest for European periphery banks’ sovereign exposures and European core banks’ private sector exposures.We also investigate the impact of bank opacity on bank funding, lending and profitability
We find that investors were not fully informed about bank lending portfolios. |
Weekly and daily is bullish. Liquidity has been taken out on 4h. Now I’m waiting for price to come back to the demand zone and retest the baseline (1.05914).TP is daily and 4h stacked supply (1.06983). We have two liquidity zones which should help push price right into the supply.
–AUD/NZD Long
Also of note is that on a 14 day basis price appears to be forming a base — which could the stage for it being a support/resistance level going forward.
As for the alignment of the moving averages, well, it’s a bit mixed up; the 20, 50, 100, and 200 do not progress from largest to smallest, or vice versa.
The clearest trend exists on the 90 day timeframe, which shows price moving down over that time.
Regarding the trend, note that the strongest trend exists on the 100 hour timeframe.
It’s been a feast for bears operating on an hourly timeframe, as gbpusd has now gone down 8 of the past 10 hours.
Regarding the trend, note that the strongest trend exists on the 50 hour timeframe.
Volatility for gbpjpy has been contracting over the past two weeks relative to volatility over the past month.
Or to simplify this another way, note that out of the past 30 days gbpchf’s price has gone up 17 them.
As for the alignment of the moving averages, well, it’s a bit mixed up; the 20, 50, 100, and 200 do not progress from largest to smallest, or vice versa.
Volatility for gbpaud has been contracting over the past two weeks relative to volatility over the past month.