S&P

Dividends Can Help Investors Navigate Volatile Markets Ahead

Friday, 5 Feb 2010 10:04 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

In light of January’s pullback in U.S. equities, following an uninterrupted nine-month rally, investors are looking to protect their portfolios from a potentially volatile 2010.  With the huge losses of 2008 still fresh in their minds, investors appear skittish about their investments going forward due to uncertainties in the business environment such as the tightening of easy central bank policies, the end of government stimulus, and increased government regulation.  In such a situation, a dividend yield based strategy can improve stability in a portfolio’s returns by smoothing out the influence of risk appetite, while still allowing the investor to chase capital gains.

In its simplest form, a dividend is the distribution of a company’s earnings to its shareholders, usually taking the form of a cash payment.  Although often forgotten or overlooked, the dividend is a key component of a security’s total return and can provide a more accurate picture of a stock’s true value than its market price.  Being a byproduct of fundamental data, the dividend is a true representation of a stock’s underlying strength and helps to filter out speculative interest and “noise” created by investor appetite.  As seen in the tech bubble of the late 1990’s, stock prices can stray far from underlying fundamentals, so using an indicator such as the dividend is key to  revealing a mispriced stock or index.

Since March 2009, stocks have greatly outpaced their underlying fundamentals if priced using the dividend discount model.  Although stocks soared over 50 percent off their March lows, dividends declined during the same period and have showed no momentum in the positive direction going forward.  Investors have recoiled from some of their equity holdings this year, as mixed earnings data and high unemployment have brought into question the economic environment for the near- to medium-term.  If dividends are any indicator, stocks appear primed for a pullback, as long as fundamentals remain weak and the economic environment uncertain.

The S&P 500 Against Its Dividends Paid, 2000-Present

DIV205

Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

S&P

U.S. Equities Rally Late On Eased Concerns Over Regulatory Reforms

Thursday, 11 Mar 2010 7:19 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments

•    Government Officials Struggle to  Put Together Health Care, Financial Reforms
•    Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims Higher Than Expected
•    Commodities Post Slight Gains on Dollar Weakness

U.S. stocks rallied into market close today, as investor concerns were eased regarding health care reconciliation and financial regulatory reforms.  The late surge for equities helped push the S&P over the 1,150 level, the highest close for the index since 2008.  Initially, stocks traded lower on the open following a disappointing jobless claims report one hour before market open.  The Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell to 462,000 last week versus 460,000 expected, and continuing claims unexpectedly rose over 4.55 million.  The news caused the S&P 500 index to dip under 1,139 off the open, before finding its footing and posting a strong rally into market close.  Financial shares led the ascent, as investors seemed more confident that financial regulation would struggle to pass and was unlikely to suffocate future bank profits as some feared the proposed “Volcker Rule” might have.  Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd announced that he will release his version of the regulation without bipartisan support, as talks with Republican Bob Corker have collapsed in recent days.  Following financial shares higher today was the health care sector, which gained nearly 0.5 percent on the S&P.  Investors speculate that health-care reform will be difficult to pass and that has taken some of the uncertainty out of the health care market, according to sector analysts.  Overall, investors continued to seek riskier assets, driving stocks and commodities higher on the session.  Crude oil closed above $82 a barrel, while gold and silver future contracts closed at $1108 and $17.16 respectively.  The U.S. Dollar Index fell for a third time in the last five trading days but held above the 80 level.

DJIA 30                     10,611.84                      +44.51                       +0.42%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the strongest performance among the major U.S. indices led by 1 percent gains for IBM, Disney, Travelers, and Home Depot.  Disney had posted strong gains this week thanks to a strong opening weekend for the company’s newest hit film, “Alice in Wonderland.”  Today, the entertainment giant announced an agreement that gives Starz Entertainment exclusive licensing for Disney movies through 2015.  Overall, the thirty Dow stocks have gained collectively in eight of the past ten trading days, and the index is inching closer to its 2010 high close of 10725 on January 19.

S&P 500                       1,150.24                           +4.63                       +0.40%
The broad-based S&P 500 traded to a 17-month high on strength in health care and financial shares.  Financial shares gained nearly 1 percent led by a strong 5.5 percent gain for Citigroup following bullish commentary from Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit.  Pandit said that the bank should be consistently profitable and he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the government decided to sell its 27 percent state in the firm.  Furthering gains for the S&P index was the health care sector, which added nearly half of one percent as Coventry Health, Aetna, and Davita added 3 percent each.

NASDAQ                     2,368.46                         +9.51                     +0.40%
Shares on the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained for a sixth day as technology were generally higher on the day.  Blackberry maker Research in Motion posted the strongest gain among the ten largest tech stocks on the index, adding 1.2 percent.  Oracle also had a strong day, gaining over 1 percent as CEO Larry Ellison was announced to be the sixth richest billionaire this year.

USW311

Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

S&P

NASDAQ Looks To Extend Gains With Little Ressitance Ahead

Thursday, 11 Mar 2010 10:45 EST by John Rivera · Leave a Comment 

UST311a

The Dow gains have been slowed by resistance at 10,586- 61.8% Fibo extension of 13,136-6,460. The technical level could prove formidable considering it is the golden ratio of a major decline. Downside risk are to 10,400 where we find trendline support, a break above exposes 10,750 followed by 11,000.

UST311b

The S&P 500 like the Dow has broke from its short-term wedge but is facing resistance at 1,144-61.8% Fibo of 1,440-665. A break above exposes 1,175, with downside risks to 1,100.

UST311c

The NASDAQ continues to set fresh yearly highs and continues to be the outperformer of the U.S. indices. However, this could make it more susceptible to a bout of risk aversion.  Possible trend line resistance at 2,415 could slow current momentum with psychological resistance at 2,400 in the way as well. The next major barrier is the August 15, 2008 high of 2,473 which could be tested before any major retracement.

S&P

U.S. Equities Open Week With Mixed Results

Monday, 8 Mar 2010 7:50 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments

•    Dow Jones Industrial Average Returns to Positive Territory For 2010
•    Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expected, Home Sales Plunge
•    Commodities Decline as Greenback Gains Against European Counterparts

U.S. stocks were generally higher today following mixed trading in Europe’s session as well as the Asian session overnight.  The Nasdaq rose slightly on strength in technology shares, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each closed lower on the day.  There was very little action on the trading day, however, as only 7.1 billion shares exchanged hands on U.S. indices- the second-lowest amount of the year.  On the other hand, the VIX volatility index rose for the first time in nine days as investors seem unsure of what lies ahead for the world’s stock markets.  As for commodities today, crude oil continued its rise, trading near $82 a barrel at session close.  Precious metals were on the decline, however, as gold fell to $1123 on the COMEX and silver fell towards the $17.20 level.  The U.S. Dollar Index held above the 80 level for a third consecutive day, gaining against the British Pound but falling against the euro.

DJIA 30                     10,552.52                      -13.68                       -0.13%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the weakest performance among major U.S. indices as 18 of the 30 Dow stocks closed lower on the day.  3M Co posted the biggest loss on the index, dropping 1.3 percent, while American Express and Bank of America fell over 1 percent each to lead financial shares lower.  On the positive side, McDonald’s shares gained over 2 percent as strong overseas growth led to a 4.8 percent increase in sales for the world’s largest fast-food chain.  Verizon shares also gained today, after the company announced plans to expand its next-generation wireless broadband beyond its initial test sites of Boston and Seattle.

S&P 500                       1,138.50                           -0.20                       -0.02%
The broad-based S&P 500 ended its six-day rally today  on weakness in industrials and health care.  Health care stocks fell 0.4 percent as U.S. President Barack Obama leads a final push to overhaul the medical industry in the United States.  Davita shares were the worst performing among the health care sector, falling over 2.4 percent, while shares of UnitedHealth and Coventry Health dropped at least 1.7 percent each.  Other shares with unusual moves today included AIG, which rallied over 3 percent after agreeing to sell its American Life Insurance Co. unit to MetLife.

NASDAQ                     2,332.21                         +5.86                     +0.25%
The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the best performer among major U.S. indices as technology stocks rose nearly 0.5 percent on the day.  Cisco shares rallied over 3 percent after JPMorgan initiated coverage of the stock and word that the technology firm would be making a major announcement tomorrow.  BlackBerry maker Research in Motion rose 4 percent after a BMO analyst upgraded his estimates and price target on the shares.  As for non-technology shares on the index, IMAX Corp. rallied over 8 percent following a successful weekend opening of Disney’s 3D film “Alice in Wonderland.”

Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

S&P

U.S. Stocks Rally as Dow Returns to Positive Territory

Thursday, 4 Mar 2010 6:39 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments

•    Dow Jones Industrial Average Returns to Positive Territory For 2010
•    Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expected, Home Sales Plunge
•    Commodities Decline as Greenback Gains Against European Counterparts

U.S. stocks were generally higher for a fifth consecutive day as initial jobless claims and continuing claims were shown to be slightly lower than expected in their most recent readings.  Investors managed to shake off a 7.2 percent plunge in January home sales and pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average back into positive territory for the 2010 year.  The employment data released by the Labor Department this morning showed that initial jobless claims fell by 29,000 to 469,000 in the week ended February 27, while continuing claims decreased to 4.5 million in the week ended February 20.  This data, coupled with a 6.9 percent improvement in nonfarm productivity in the fourth quarter, helped boost market sentiment and extend the winning streak for equities.  Commodities, on the other hand, did not fair as well due to weakness in Asia overnight and a rising U.S. dollar.  Crude oil fell nearly 1 percent today and fell below $80 a barrel intraday before closing at $80.21.  Precious metals were also weak, as gold prices fell to $1131 and silver futures fell towards the $17 level.  Silver has had a strong run as of late, gaining over 17 percent in the last month.  The U.S. Dollar Index posted its second gain of the week today, returning to the 80.5 level.  The greenback snapped its two-day losing streak against the euro, as the EURUSD fell to $1.3581 at the time of this writing.  Overall, there was very little price action after the initial morning gains as investors looked ahead to the nonfarm payrolls release tomorrow.  Economists expect the report to show that payrolls fell by 68,000 in February after declining 20,000 in the month prior.

DJIA 30                     10,444.14                      +47.38                       +0.46%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained back yesterday’s slight loss and some, rallying nearly 50 points on strong performances for financials and basic materials shares.  Disney was the top performer on the index, adding nearly 3 percent after analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised their rating on the stock to “buy” from “neutral.”  Shares in Bank of America rallied 1.7 percent after the U.S. Treasury sold its warrants on the company’s shares for $1.57 billion.  Other strong performers included Coca-Cola and Boeing, which each gained over 1 percent on upgrades from analysts at UBS.  Overall, shares on the index have rallied over 6 percent in the last month and have returned to the black for 2010 to date.

S&P 500                       1,122.97                           +4.18                       +0.37%
The broad-based S&P 500 rallied for a fifth day as consumer services and financials gained nearly 1 percent each.  Financials were generally higher on news of the U.S. Treasury’s sale of BofA warrants, as well as easing concern over the Volcker Rule’s potential impact on bank profits.  Goldman Sachs had a strong day, posting a 3.7 percent gain on high volume trading.  Consumer services shares were led by gains in Abercrombie & Fitch, Zumiez, and Aeropostale as year-over-year comparisons showed improvements in the retail sector.  The worst performing sector on the S&P today was energy due to falling oil prices.

NASDAQ                     2,292.31                         +11.63                     +0.51%
The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the best performer among major U.S. indices as technology stocks rose nearly 0.6 percent on the day.  Of the largest-weighted fifteen tech stocks on the index, search engine giants Yahoo!, Google, and Baidu posted the strongest gains, each adding over 1 percent.  Research in Motion was the worst performer among the largest Nasdaq tech stocks, dropping 1.2 percent.

USW304

Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

S&P

U.S. Stocks Unchanged on Mixed Economic Data

Wednesday, 3 Mar 2010 6:36 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments

  • Services Sector Expands More Than Anticipated
  • Beige Book Survey Reports Loan Demand Remains Weak
  • Dollar Falls, Commodities Rise
  • The S&P 500 Index managed to squeeze out a fourth consecutive higher close despite all three major US benchmark equity indices ending the session essentially unchanged.  Stocks were higher at the open following positive data on jobs and service industries.  According to ADP Employer Services, U.S. Companies cut 20,000 jobs last month and private employment may grow in March.  The Challenger job cuts survey also showed that planned firings fell 77 percent in February.  Furthermore, the Institute for Supply Management reported that the service industry expanded more than anticipated by Economists.  The ISM Non-manufacturing composite index rose from 50.5 to 53, beating the median estimate of 51 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

    Stocks erased the earlier gains following the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book business survey at 2 PM EST.  The survey reported that the U.S. economy improved in nine of the twelve Federal Reserve regions for the first two months of the year.  Unfortunately, in most cases the increases were muted and the Federal Reserve reported that commercial real estate and loan demand remained weak and the government moved closer to limiting banks’ trading.  Other markets were more directional than equities; the greenback was lower throughout the day and the dollar index ended the session 0.7 percent lower.  Commodities were higher today with the CRB Commodity index increasing by 0.9 percent.  Oil provided major strength as May 2010 crude contracts gained 1.6 percent despite the US Department of Energy reporting that crude inventories rose by over 4 million barrels in the week ending February 26th.

    DJIA 30                      10,396.76                    -9.22                            -0.09%
    Three out of five stocks declined in today’s session to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its first lower close in four trading days.  Pfizer led declines with a 1.6 percent drop after the company reported negative results for a late-stage trial of an Alzheimer’s disease drug.  Coca-Cola was the best performer of all Dow issues.  Share rose 1.2 percent as investors continue to digest Cola’s plans to acquire its biggest North American bottling operation.

    S&P 500                     1,118.79                      +0.48                           +0.04%
    The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index closed higher for the fourth consecutive trading day as almost half the issues advanced.  Bank stocks were 0.06 percent lower, giving up earlier gains after the Federal Reserve reported that the government had moved closer to limiting banks’ trading.  Basic Material stocks gained 0.9 percent, the best performance by any sector, as commodity prices gained 0.9 percent.

    NASDAQ                   2,280.68                      -0.11                            -0.00%
    The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite was moderately lower, dragged down by consumer service stocks as well as financials.  Tech stocks gained 0.1 percent, led by Qualcomm, which contributed the most to the sector’s advance.  Shares in the company gained 2.0 percent after the company announced plans to raise its quarterly dividend as well as a stock buyback plan.  Shares of Novell were the top performers on the Nasdaq, climbing 28 percent after a hedge fund offered to buy the business-software maker.

    wrapup

    Written by Gary Chalik, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to GChalik@fxcm.com

    S&P

    U.S. Equities Gain For Third Consecutive Session

    Tuesday, 2 Mar 2010 5:45 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    U.S. Session Key Developments

    •    Sovereign Debt Concerns Ease as Greece Prepares For More Deficit Cuts
    •    February Vehicle Sales Announced After Market Close, Fall Short of Expectations
    •    Commodities Trade Higher as Greenback Generally Weaker

    U.S. stocks gained for a third consecutive day, following a strong session in Europe, as investor concerns regarding a Greece debt default continued to ease.  The broad-based S&P 500 rose 2 points to 1118, the highest close for the index since January 20.  The gains in U.S. stocks were a continuation of the European session today, in which the FTSE, CAC, and DAX each gained over 1 percent.  Sovereign debt concerns in the region eased for a second day, as yields on 10-year Greek bonds fell 10 basis points to 6.14 percent.  Leaders of the Greek government plan to announce additional cuts of $6.5 billion tomorrow to help reign in the country’s massive debt-to-GDP ratio that currently sits at three times the acceptable European Union level.  The news fueled speculation that other EU nations would provide aid to Greece and boosted risk appetite across the globe.  The positive momentum wore off by the end of the U.S. session, however, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped into the red during the last hour of trading before closing slightly above even.  There was no economic data today to drive market sentiment as the only data release took place an hour after U.S. markets closed.  The data showed that domestic vehicle sales were slightly lower than expected in February and that ABC consumer confidence ticked slightly higher last week.

    On the commodities front, crude oil had a strong showing and rallied over 1 percent to $79.68 a barrel.  Precious metals had an even better day as gold futures posted their largest gain in two weeks to $1137 and silver futures rose 3 percent to $17.06.  Rising metal prices coincided with a relatively weak dollar, as the U.S. Dollar Index fell for the fourth time in five days.  The greenback still managed to gain against the British Pound, however, driving cable lower for a sixth consecutive session.  Looking ahead, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report and ADP employment report will be released tomorrow morning, while the Fed will release its Beige Book in the latter half of the trading day.

    DJIA 30                     10,405.98                      +2.19                       +0.02%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly higher today, led by a near half-percent gain for industrials and oil & gas stocks.  Chevron led commodity stocks with a 0.7 percent gain due to rising oil prices, while Boeing and 3M gained 0.6 percent each to lead industrials.  Disney was the best overall performer on the Dow today, adding over 1 percent as fans await the opening of Alice in Wonderland in theaters on March 5.  The main laggards of the index today were Microsoft and Bank of America, which dropped 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.  The U.S. Treasury announced yesterday its intentions to auction off $272 million warrants to buy stock in BofA.

    S&P 500                       1,118.31                        +2.60                         +0.23%
    The broad-based S&P 500 rose to its highest level since January as rising commodity prices helped boost basic materials and energy shares.  Massey Energy led basic materials shares with a 4 percent gain, followed by Consol Energy and Newmont Mining which added nearly 3 percent each.  The coal sector posted strong gains today amid speculation that Massey will acquire Patriot Coal Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. coal producer.  Tesoro Corp. posted a 5 percent gain to lead a strong showing for energy stocks.  Financial shares added to the bullish momentum after bank analyst Dick Bove said that bank earnings over the next few years “will soar.”

    NASDAQ                     2,280.79                       +7.22                       +0.32%
    The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the best performer among major U.S. indices although technology stocks posted a minimal gain.  Qualcomm led the heaviest-weighted fifteen tech stocks on the index, gaining 6.6 percent after the chip maker boosted its dividend by 12 percent and announced a $3 billion stock buyback program.  Internet search giant Google rose over 1.5 percent on news that the company agreed to purchase online photography site Picnik.

    USW302

    Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

    S&P

    Dow Triangle Signals Potential Breakout

    Tuesday, 2 Mar 2010 11:07 EST by John Rivera · Leave a Comment 

    UST302a

    Recent Dow price action has developed a potential triangle formation which could signal the potential for a breakout.  The blue chip index appears to have breached the upper bound signaling a stronger move to the upside. However, this is a weak interpretation of the pattern which leaves us without significant conviction on the pending move. Nevertheless, a clear upward trend has emerged leaving potential to re-test 10,750.

    UST302b

    The S&P 500 like the Dow is also in the midst of a bullish trend after finding trendline support. Look fro the continuation of the broader channel and a re-test of resistance at 1,144-61.8% Fibo.

    UST302c

    The NASDAQ has broken resistance at 2,251-61.8% Fibo of 1,265-2,861 leaving the yearly high of 2,234as the next barrier. Continuation of the bullish trend leaves potential to 2,500.

    S&P

    U.S. Equities Trim Weekly Loss On Fourth Quarter GDP Revision

    Friday, 26 Feb 2010 6:04 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    U.S. Session Key Developments

    •    U.S. Fourth Quarter GDP Revised Higher to 5.9 Percent, Personal Consumption Lower
    •    Existing-Home Sales Drop in January, Chicago Business Gauge Better-Than-Expected
    •    Commodities Trade Higher as Greenback Falls Against Major Cross Currencies

    U.S. stocks posted a slight gain in the final day of trading this week, as estimates for fourth quarter economic growth were shown to be higher than previously thought.  Despite today’s gain, however, the S&P 500 closed the week down 0.4 percent to 1,104.  The market-moving GDP revision was announced one hour before the opening bell and showed that the U.S. economy expanded 5.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009, better than the 5.7 percent initial estimate.  The GDP data was revised higher thanks to stronger business investment in the quarter and a greater contribution from inventories.  The personal consumption aspect, however, was revised lower to 1.7 percent from a 2.0 percent initial reading.  Overall, stocks traded mostly sideways during the session as other economic data released today was mixed.  The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index unexpectedly rose from 61.5 to 62.6 in February, but the University of Michigan Confidence indicator fell in the month and existing home sales disappointed for January.  Home sales were expected to rise 0.9 percent in January but instead were shown to have fallen 7.2 percent, after declining 16.2 percent in the month prior.

    Globally, stocks had a strong day as the major European indices and China’s Hang Seng Index each traded at least 1 percent higher.  Investor risk appetite made a strong return as commodities joined stocks in trading higher across the board.  Crude oil prices gained for the third time this week, adding nearly 2 percent to $79 a barrel, while gold futures posted a second consecutive gain and closed the week near the $1120 level.  As for currencies, the U.S. Dollar was generally weak, falling against most of its major counterparts, including the euro.  The U.S. Dollar Index fell for a third consecutive day, but held above the 80 level for a seventh consecutive session.

    DJIA 30                     10,325.26                      +4.23                       +0.04%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly above even on a low-volume trading day.  Volume on U.S. exchanges today was slightly under 8 billion shares, 11 percent less than the 2010 average due to a snow storm in New York City and the surrounding area.  JPMorgan Chase led the index with a 3.2 percent gain after analysts at Barclays recommended buying the bank’s shares.  The bullish commentary led to a near full percent gain among financial shares.  Other stocks that outperformed the index included General Electric and drug maker Merck, which each added 0.8 percent on the day.  The worst performer on the index was Kraft Foods, which fell over 1.3 percent on the day.

    S&P 500                     1,104.49                         +1.55                         +0.14%
    The broad-based S&P 500 posted a small gain in the final day of trading this week on strength in financials and basic materials shares.  Financials rose nearly 0.7 percent on bullish commentary from Barclays analysts as well as commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in the past two days that suggested rates would remain low for the foreseeable future.  The basic materials sector added 0.3 percent today, as commodities generally traded higher during the session.  Mining company Freeport McMoRan gained over 1 percent, while Barrick Gold Corp. added 0.2 percent on higher precious metals prices.  On the downside, AIG fell 10 percent for the biggest loss  on the index after posting a fourth-quarter net loss of $8.8 billion.

    NASDAQ                     2,238.26                         +4.04                         +0.18%
    The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the best performer among major U.S. indices as technology stocks posted a slight gain.  Among the heaviest-weighted fifteen tech stocks on the index, smart phone competitors Research in Motion and Apple posted the largest gains.  Shares of each company rose at least 1.2 percent as shares of Palm, another smart phone competitor, sank on news that company sales may be very weak this year.  Qualcomm was the worst performer among the large Nasdaq tech stocks, dropping 1.3 percent on the session.

    USW226

    Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

    S&P

    European Stocks Generally Higher on Industrial Orders, U.S. Fed Comments

    Wednesday, 24 Feb 2010 2:47 EST by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    Europe Session Key Developments

    •    U.S. Fed Chairman Bernanke Says Interest Rates to Remain Low For Foreseeable Future
    •    Standard & Poor’s Says It May Downgrade Greece’s Credit Rating
    •    Europe Industrial Orders Unexpectedly Climb, Boosted by Machinery Demand
    •    Euro Rises Against Greenback, Cable Falls

    European stocks were mostly higher today on surprisingly strong industrial orders data for the region and commentary from U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that indicated low rates would remain for the foreseeable future.  Equity markets in France, Germany, Italy, and the U.K. rallied for the first time this week, while Spanish stocks fell for a third consecutive session.  Investor sentiment increased during the early hours of trading after Germany announced a rise in its GfK Consumer Confidence Survey, as the index rose from 3.0 to 3.2 in March.  The European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg announced soon after that the region’s industrial orders unexpectedly rose 0.8 percent in December.  The surprise increase was led by a rise in demand for machinery and capital goods and boosted investor confidence regarding the strength of Europe’s recovery.  As a result, both stock and commodity prices closed slightly higher, as crude oil returned to $80 a barrel and agricultural products gained.  Gold, on the other hand, closed below the $1100 mark for the first time in seven sessions despite Dollar weakness.  The U.S. Dollar Index posted its second loss in three days, closing just above the 80 level for a sixth straight session.

    In the final hour of today’s trading, investors cheered comments out of the U.S. from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that interest rates would remain low going forward.  The Fed Chairman stated that the country’s “nascent” recovery, as seen by low rates of resource utilization and high unemployment, would require low rates “for an extended period.”  This commentary offset lingering concerns for European investors that their region’s own economic recovery still faces serious hurdles.  Unemployment in the region remains above 10 percent, and sovereign debt issues have gone unaddressed thus far.  EU leaders may be forced into action soon, however, as Standard & Poor’s said today that it will consider downgrading Greece’s credit rating in the near future.

    FTSE 100                         5342.92                     +27.83                     +0.52%
    British stocks traded higher today for the first time this week on strength in the technology and financial sectors.  Leading financial shares higher was Lloyds Banking, which gained 3.4 percent as investors await the company’s earnings reports tomorrow.  HSBC Holdings followed suit, gaining 2 percent as investors await its earnings next week.  Shares of HSBC, Europe’s largest bank, have rallied for eight consecutive days.  Technology shares were the second-strongest sector today as Sage Group and Autonomy Corp. gained at least 1.4 percent each.

    CAC 40                             3715.68                     +8.62                     +0.23%
    French equities closed higher today despite higher-than-expected job losses in December, as technology shares gained over 1.8 percent.  STMicroelectronics posted a 2.6 percent gain to lead tech stocks, while Cap Gemini and Alcatel-Lucent gained at over 1 percent each.  Yesterday, STMicroelectronics introduced a new family of highly efficient power rectifiers to help power-suppy companies achieve energy-efficient approvals.

    DAX                                  5615.51                    +11.44                     +0.20%
    German stocks posted a small gain after a final reading confirmed that the country’s economy stalled in the fourth quarter of 2009.  Fresenius Medical Care posted the largest gain on the DAX, adding over 4 percent on news that the company would double its budget for acquisitions to $400 million this year.  Volkswagen was the next strongest DAX performer today, gaining 1.6 percent after setting aggressive sales goals yesterday for its growing line of products.  Volkswagen also received a ‘Canadian Car of the Year’ award.

    IBEX 35                          10254.00                     -58.90                     -0.57%
    Trading in Spain led to the only decline among major European indices as financials fell over 1.3 percent.  Spanish banking giants BBVA and Banco Santander both dropped over 1 percent after Barclays Capital reduced its outlook on the financial institutions.  Barclays analysts downgraded BBVA from “overweight” to “underweight” and cut Banco Santander from “equalweight” to underweight”.  Telecinco continued its volatile trading of the last few weeks, dropping over 2.2 percent today.

    FTSE MIB                     21346.31                     +122.24                    +0.58%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB gained for the first time this week despite disappointing retail sales in December.  Trading in Milan led to a near 3 percent gain for STMicroelectronics after BofA-Merrill Lynch kept the chipmaker as its top pick for the industry.  Banco Popolare gained 2 percent after an upgrade from Banca Akros, while investment bank Mediobanca added 2.8 percent on better-than-expected net income.

    EW224

    Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

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