Italy
European Stocks Validate Bearish Bias, Break Past Key Support
Wednesday, 2 Sep 2009 1:37 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
Weekly Strategy
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 4751, has been reached and is where the rally from 4096 is equal to 61.8% of the 3461-4521 rally. The next level is 5156, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has broken out of the Rising Wedge that we identified earlier this week, with prices now positioned to test the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 4816.64. A break beyond that will target the 50% Fib at 4777.25.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 5506, has nearly been reached and is where the rally from 4524 is equal to 61.8% of the 3589-5176 rally. The next level is 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The German benchmark index has sold off as expected and is now positioned above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 53198. A break lower targets the 76.4% level at 52587.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 3535, has been reached and is where the rally from 2958 is equal to 61.8% of the 2466-3400 rally. The next level is 3892, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Our bearish forecast for the French equities has been validated: prices fell through the bottom of a rising wedge formation and taken out the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 3599.14. From here, the bears will look to take the index to the 50% Fib at 3560.47.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 1124, has nearly been reached and is where the rally from 925 is equal to 61.8% of the 670-993 rally. The next level is 1247, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
As with most other European exchanges, Spanish shares sold off to break beyond the Rising Wedge we identified at the beginning of the week. Prices now target the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1113.66.
FTSE MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top and neither has been reached. The first level, 22798, is where the rally from 17626 is equal to 61.8% of the 12332-20702 rally. The next level is 25996, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB looks essentially the same as other European benchmark indexes: prices validated our bearish scenario, breaking below Rising Wedge support to challenge resistance-turned-support at 21981.13. A move lower from here would target the 21947.83 – 21762.62 congestion region.
Italy
European Stock Exchanges Position to Reverse Lower
Monday, 31 Aug 2009 1:08 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
Weekly Strategy
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 4751, has been reached and is where the rally from 4096 is equal to 61.8% of the 3461-4521 rally. The next level is 5156, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE is setting up a Rising Wedge chart formation indicative of a bearish reversal ahead. Negative divergence on the RSI oscillator bolsters the downward bias. Near-term support is seen at 4888.90.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 5506, has nearly been reached and is where the rally from 4524 is equal to 61.8% of the 3589-5176 rally. The next level is 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
As with the FTSE, the German benchmark index is showing a bearish Rising Wedge with negative RSI divergence. A break of support at 55023 opens the door for a move to resistance-turned-support at 54420.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 3535, has been reached and is where the rally from 2958 is equal to 61.8% of the 2466-3400 rally. The next level is 3892, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Another rising wedge is seen on the CAC 40, again with negative RSI divergence. Near-term support is seen at 3668.40. A break below this will likely see a test of the psychologically significant 3600.00 handle.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 1124, has nearly been reached and is where the rally from 925 is equal to 61.8% of the 670-993 rally. The next level is 1247, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares fit in with positioning noted on other key exchanges: a Rising Wedge points to a bearish bias, and negative RSI divergence offers confirmation. A break below the wedge bottom at 1141.81 opens the door for a move to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1128.42).
FTSE MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top and neither has been reached. The first level, 22798, is where the rally from 17626 is equal to 61.8% of the 12332-20702 rally. The next level is 25996, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB looks essentially the same as other European benchmarks, with a Rising Wedge and negative RSI divergence clearly in place. A move below the wedge bottom at 22609.38 will aim below the 22500.00 handle.
Italy
Daily Commodities Fundamentals: Broader Commodity Market Retreats Amid CFTC Speculation and Falling Risk Appetite
Tuesday, 28 Jul 2009 4:07 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
North American Commodity Update, Last Updated 7/28/2009 4:00 PM EST (GMT = EDT +5:00)
Commodities – Energy
Crude Prices Fall As CFTC Hearings Begin
Crude Oil (WTI) $67.230 -$1.080 -1.58%
Crude Oil future prices dropped significantly today, falling nearly 2.5% during intraday before paring some of its losses. Crude prices started off the day slightly higher only to begin a steady descent following the US Consumer Confidence report, which revealed worse-than-expected results (46.6 actual vs. 49.0 expected). Continued unemployment increases seem to be the primary reason for the disappointing confidence figure; just last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke said that the unemployment rate could increase for a few more years. European equity indices fell lower today, while the US indices appear to be following suit. Poor earnings from both Office Depot and US Steel Corporation discouraged investors even after the S&P Case Shiller Index improved for the first month in three years. However, while all of the above was market moving, the most influential price driver in the broader commodity market today was the beginning of the CFTC hearings regarding speculation restriction. Commodities fell across the board as investors fear that CFTC Chairman will attempt to impose strict position limits in energy markets. The results of the hearings will likely weigh heavily on Crude future prices.
Upcoming Department of Energy Inventories
Commodities – Metals
Precious Metals Decline Near 2% on CFTCSpeculation and Dollar Strength
Gold $939.600 -$16.700 -1.75%
Gold future prices retreated back below the psychological $950-per-ounce level today as part of a broad commodity pullback today. Investors are selling out of Gold and taking a “wait and see” approach as the CFTC hearings push forward. The results of the CFTC meetings this week will likely be the main driver behind Gold future prices in addition to risk appetite/aversion. The US dollar outperformed the Euro, Pound, and Franc today, but lost to the ultra-safe Japanese Yen and impressive Australian dollar. Recall that Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely as investors use the metal to hedge against dollar weakness/inflation. Tomorrow’s German CPI report will likely be a market mover for Gold future prices.
Silver $13.725 -$0.265 -1.89%
After breaking above the $14-per-ounce level yesterday, Silver followed the other commodities downward today, losing approximately 2% during intraday trading. Like Gold, tomorrow’s CPI report will move Silver future prices; however, the US Durable Goods Orders figure will serve as a leading indicator for future industrial production. Because durable goods are expected to last more than three years, an increase in orders will signal heightened optimism in the marketplace and potential growth. Tomorrow should be an interesting day for Silver, as the fundamental data reports will be measured against any news emerging from the CFTC hearings.
-Written by Jay Steinberg, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to JSteinberg@fxcm.com
Italy
European Stocks Rebound Tentatively Higher – Where to From Here?
Tuesday, 14 Jul 2009 1:23 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
Weekly Strategy
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE rally from 3461 most likely completed wave 4 within a 5 wave decline from the 2007 high. Expectations are for wave 5 to drawn the index to a new low (below 3461).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has rebounded from significant support at the intersection of the 100-day moving average and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Near-term resistance is seen at 4279.63, a falling channel top.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The DAX pattern is the same as that of the FTSE 100. The rally from the March low counts well as wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high. Moreover, the decline from 5178 (on short term charts) unfolded as an impulse (5 waves).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have rebounded from near-term support at the intersection of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the lower boundary of a falling channel. Initial resistance is seen at 48497, the channel top.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
I’ve made a change to the labeling for the CAC 40. The change brings the count in line with that of the DAX and FTSE counts. The rally from 2465 was wave 4 of (3). Wave 5 of (3) is considered underway towards a new low as long as 3400 remains intact.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index has rebounded from the lower boundary of a falling channel to meet support-turned-resistance at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. A break higher will aim to challenge the channel top, now at 3134.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The IBEX 35 appears to have already completed 5 waves down from its 2007 high. However, the decline could extend (like the CAC 40 appears to be doing). The continued divergence with RSI at the recent high also favors weakness going forward.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares are positioned above support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (91848), with negative divergence on the RSI oscillator hinting at a bearish bias. Near-term resistance is seen at 99294, the 07/01 high.
FTSE MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The rally from the March low in the FTSE / MIB index was a 4th wave. In line with other European indexes, the Milan index is expected to drop to a new low (below 12343).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italian shares have found support at the 100-daysimple moving average. Initial resistance is seen in the 18459.31 – 18752.00 congestion region, an area that previously served as support.
Italy
European Stocks to Accelerate Lower as Prices Breach Key Support Levels
Wednesday, 8 Jul 2009 1:37 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE rally from 3461 most likely completed wave 4 within a 5 wave decline from the 2007 high. Expectations are for wave 5 to drawn the index to a new low (below 3461).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has broken below support at 4225.52, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. From here, prices aim to challenge 100-day moving average, now at 4117.47.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The DAX pattern is the same as that of the FTSE 100. The rally from the March low counts well as wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high. Moreover, the decline from 5178 (on short term charts) unfolded as an impulse (5 waves).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have extended lower after breaking support at a rising trend line, meeting near-term support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (45803). A break lower will target 43957, the 50% Fib.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
I’ve made a change to the labeling for the CAC 40. The change brings the count in line with that of the DAX and FTSE counts. The rally from 2465 was wave 4 of (3). Wave 5 of (3) is considered underway towards a new low as long as 3400 remains intact.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index has been confined to a narrow falling channel after breaking below support at a rising trend line that had guided the CAC since early March. The next leg of the down move sees initial support at the 100-day moving average.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The IBEX 35 appears to have already completed 5 waves down from its 2007 high. However, the decline could extend (like the CAC 40 appears to be doing). The continued divergence with RSI at the recent high also favors weakness going forward.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The breakout above double top resistance at 97447 looks to have been a head-fake, with prices reversing sharply lower to close below this juncture. From here, price aim to challenge support at 91678, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
FTSE MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The rally from the March low in the FTSE / MIB index was a 4th wave. In line with other European indexes, the Milan index is expected to drop to a new low (below 12343).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italian shares have overcome support in the 18442.00-18752.00 congestion region, the next level support at the 100-day simple moving average (now at 17792.95). This juncture is reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 17504.66.
Italy
European Stocks Cling to Familiar Levels, Bearish Bias Favored
Monday, 29 Jun 2009 12:46 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE is at risk of at least a pullback if not an outright reversal as daily RSI has rolled over from overbought territory. At best for bulls, the FTSE decline will be a B wave. At worst, the drop will be the next leg of the longer term bear. The rally from the low is not clearly impulsive, so the latter certainly is possible.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has broken below support at 4270.63, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The UK benchmark index now targets the intersection of the 38.2% Fib and the 100-day moving average (4115.00).
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The DAX pattern is the same as that of the FTSE 100. The rally does look more like an impulse (5 waves) though, so the decline underway may be a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares found near-term support at 46885, a familiar pivot level, and rebounded above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The door is now open for a return to the 14.6% Fib at 49495.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The decline from the 2007 high in the CAC 40 is in 5 waves and either wave 1 or 5 is extended. It seems more probably that wave 5 is the extended wave because if wave 1 were extended then wave 2 would be uncommonly small. Either way, the index is most likely headed higher over the next several months but not before a sizeable correction of the gains from March.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index has been trending lower in a narrow falling channel since breaking below support at a rising trend line that had guided the CAC since early March. A Hanging Man candlestick at the upper boundary of the channel suggests the next leg of the down move may be near, with initial support at the 100-day moving average.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
Same story with the IBEX 35. The rally from the low (6703) is corrective but is probably just the first leg of a larger correction. The next several months should lead to a choppy B wave decline.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The IBEX found near-term support at the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement level and has rebounded to re-test triple top resistance at 97240, a level now also bolstered the lower boundary of a previously broken rising channel. A Hammer candlestick at this juncture hunts at a move lower from here.
FTSE MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE MIB (Milan) index took the same structure as the CAC 40 on the way down from its 2007 high. The 200 day SMA has held as resistance and the index is headed lower in what is probable a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italian shares continue to try to resolve a favored directional bias around 18726.68, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break lower would see near-term support at the 100-day simple moving average while a move higher will meet resistance at the psychologically significant 20000 level.
Italy
European Stocks Consolidate After Bearish Breakout
Wednesday, 24 Jun 2009 1:07 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE is at risk of at least a pullback if not an outright reversal as daily RSI has rolled over from overbought territory. At best for bulls, the FTSE decline will be a B wave. At worst, the drop will be the next leg of the longer term bear. The rally from the low is not clearly impulsive, so the latter certainly is possible.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has broken below support at 4270.63, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The UK benchmark index now targets the intersection of the 50% Fib and the 100-day moving average.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The DAX pattern is the same as that of the FTSE 100. The rally does look more like an impulse (5 waves) though, so the decline underway may be a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have surpassed support at 48066, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. From here, prices target the 38.2% Fib at 45759.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The decline from the 2007 high in the CAC 40 is in 5 waves and either wave 1 or 5 is extended. It seems more probably that wave 5 is the extended wave because if wave 1 were extended then wave 2 would be uncommonly small. Either way, the index is most likely headed higher over the next several months but not before a sizeable correction of the gains from March.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index looks to have broken below resistance-turned-support at 313490. Bearish momentum now looks to extend to test the 100-day moving average at 301610.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
Same story with the IBEX 35. The rally from the low (6703) is corrective but is probably just the first leg of a larger correction. The next several months should lead to a choppy B wave decline.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The IBEX 35 reversed sharply lower on a re-test of broken support at the bottom of a rising channel. The bears now look to overcome the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement to expose the 23.6% level at 90279.
S&P/MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE MIB (Milan) index took the same structure as the CAC 40 on the way down from its 2007 high. The 200 day SMA has held as resistance and the index is headed lower in what is probable a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italian shares gapped below support at 18726.68, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. From here the MIB targets the 38.2% Fib at 17504.66.
Italy
European Stocks to Extend Losses as Support Disintegrates
Tuesday, 23 Jun 2009 12:28 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE is at risk of at least a pullback if not an outright reversal as daily RSI has rolled over from overbought territory. The rally from 3461 is likely to extend much higher over the summer months. But, will the advance carry more or less in a straight shot from current levels or will a pullback occur before the next advance? Remaining above 4295 keeps the FTSE 100 on a path towards 5106-5495 (50% and 61.8% of previous decline). A drop below 4295 would lead to a deeper decline in what is probably a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has broken below support at 4270.63, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The UK benchmark index now targets the intersection of the 50% Fib and the 100-day moving average.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The DAX pattern is the same as that of the FTSE 100. Staying above 4653 keeps the index headed higher towards 5870-6409. These levels are defined by the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the decline from the 2007 high. The 100% extension of the first leg of the advance (wave A, from 3589-4980) is in this zone at 6045.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have surpassed support at 48066, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. From here, prices target the 38.2% Fib at 45759.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The decline from the 2007 high in the CAC 40 is in 5 waves and either wave 1 or 5 is extended. It seems more probably that wave 5 is the extended wave because if wave 1 were extended then wave 2 would be uncommonly small. Either way, the index is most likely headed significantly higher over the next several months. The target zone is the former 4th wave, which is 441-5142. The 61.8% is in the middle of this zone at 4754. Near term, staying above 3115 keeps the trend pointed up. Coming under there would lead to a deeper decline in what is probably a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index looks to have broken below resistance-turned-support at 313490. Bearish momentum now looks to extend to test the 100-day moving average at 301610.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
Same story with the IBEX 35. The rally from the low (6703) is corrective but has more room to run. Staying above 8829 keeps wave C headed higher towards 1137-1247. This zone is defined by the 50%-61.8% retracements of the decline from the 2007 high. Wave C would equal wave A near the lower end of this zone at 1159.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The IBEX 35 reversed sharply lower on a re-test of broken support at the bottom of a rising channel. The bears now look to overcome the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement to expose the 23.6% level at 90279.
S&P/MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE MIB (Milan) index took the same structure as the CAC 40 on the way down from its 2007 high. The index is currently testing the 200 day SMA, which should give way as the target zone for the index is not until 30062-34711 (former 4th wave….wave 5 is extended). Remaining above 18752 keeps the trend pointed higher. Coming below there would lead to a deeper decline (next support would be 17133) before the next leg up.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italian shares gapped below support at 18726.68, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. From here the MIB targets the 38.2% Fib at 17504.66.
Italy
European Stocks Find Near-Term Support, Stage Shallow Rebound
Monday, 22 Jun 2009 1:25 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE is at risk of at least a pullback if not an outright reversal as daily RSI has rolled over from overbought territory. The rally from 3461 is likely to extend much higher over the summer months. But, will the advance carry more or less in a straight shot from current levels or will a pullback occur before the next advance? Remaining above 4295 keeps the FTSE 100 on a path towards 5106-5495 (50% and 61.8% of previous decline). A drop below 4295 would lead to a deeper decline in what is probably a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has found tentative support at 4270.63, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break lower targets the intersection of the 50% Fib and the 100-day moving average.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The DAX pattern is the same as that of the FTSE 100. Staying above 4653 keeps the index headed higher towards 5870-6409. These levels are defined by the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the decline from the 2007 high. The 100% extension of the first leg of the advance (wave A, from 3589-4980) is in this zone at 6045.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have surpassed support at the bottom of a rising channel and are now testing 48066, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break lower will target the 38.2% Fib at 45759.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The decline from the 2007 high in the CAC 40 is in 5 waves and either wave 1 or 5 is extended. It seems more probably that wave 5 is the extended wave because if wave 1 were extended then wave 2 would be uncommonly small. Either way, the index is most likely headed significantly higher over the next several months. The target zone is the former 4th wave, which is 441-5142. The 61.8% is in the middle of this zone at 4754. Near term, staying above 3115 keeps the trend pointed up. Coming under there would lead to a deeper decline in what is probably a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index has broken below the lower boundary of a rising channel. Prices now testing support / resistance at 313490, with a break lower targeting the 100-day moving average at 301057.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
Same story with the IBEX 35. The rally from the low (6703) is corrective but has more room to run. Staying above 8829 keeps wave C headed higher towards 1137-1247. This zone is defined by the 50%-61.8% retracements of the decline from the 2007 high. Wave C would equal wave A near the lower end of this zone at 1159.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The IBEX 35 has confirmed a double top at 97240 with a break below support at the bottom of a rising channel. Prices found near-term support at the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement and rebounded to re-test the broken channel’s lower boundary. A resumption of bearish momentum from here aims at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (90279).
S&P/MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE MIB (Milan) index took the same structure as the CAC 40 on the way down from its 2007 high. The index is currently testing the 200 day SMA, which should give way as the target zone for the index is not until 30062-34711 (former 4th wave….wave 5 is extended). Remaining above 18752 keeps the trend pointed higher. Coming below there would lead to a deeper decline (next support would be 17133) before the next leg up.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italian shares have broken below support at 19479.98, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement level, to pause at the 23.6% Fib mark. A break lower from here targets the 38.2% Fib at 17504.66.
Italy
European Markets Find Tentative Support, Outlook Remains Bearish
Friday, 19 Jun 2009 1:04 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE is at risk of at least a pullback if not an outright reversal as daily RSI has rolled over from overbought territory. The rally from 3461 is likely to extend much higher over the summer months. But, will the advance carry more or less in a straight shot from current levels or will a pullback occur before the next advance? Remaining above 4295 keeps the FTSE 100 on a path towards 5106-5495 (50% and 61.8% of previous decline). A drop below 4295 would lead to a deeper decline in what is probably a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has broken below support / resistance at 4307.61. From here, prices are now aiming at the 100-day moving average at 4109.84.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The DAX pattern is the same as that of the FTSE 100. Staying above 4653 keeps the index headed higher towards 5870-6409. These levels are defined by the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the decline from the 2007 high. The 100% extension of the first leg of the advance (wave A, from 3589-4980) is in this zone at 6045.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have surpassed support at the bottom of a rising channel and are now testing 48066, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break lower will target the 38.2% Fib at 45759.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The decline from the 2007 high in the CAC 40 is in 5 waves and either wave 1 or 5 is extended. It seems more probably that wave 5 is the extended wave because if wave 1 were extended then wave 2 would be uncommonly small. Either way, the index is most likely headed significantly higher over the next several months. The target zone is the former 4th wave, which is 441-5142. The 61.8% is in the middle of this zone at 4754. Near term, staying above 3115 keeps the trend pointed up. Coming under there would lead to a deeper decline in what is probably a B wave.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index has broken below the lower boundary of a rising channel. Prices now testing support / resistance at 313490, with a break lower targeting the 100-day moving average at 301057.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook
Same story with the IBEX 35. The rally from the low (6703) is corrective but has more room to run. Staying above 8829 keeps wave C headed higher towards 1137-1247. This zone is defined by the 50%-61.8% retracements of the decline from the 2007 high. Wave C would equal wave A near the lower end of this zone at 1159.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The IBEX 35 has confirmed a double top at 97240 with a break below support at the bottom of a rising channel. From here, prices aim at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (90279).
S&P/MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE MIB (Milan) index took the same structure as the CAC 40 on the way down from its 2007 high. The index is currently testing the 200 day SMA, which should give way as the target zone for the index is not until 30062-34711 (former 4th wave….wave 5 is extended). Remaining above 18752 keeps the trend pointed higher. Coming below there would lead to a deeper decline (next support would be 17133) before the next leg up.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italian shares have broken below support at 19479.98. The next level of support lines up at 18726.68, the 23.6% Fibonacci level.
