Finance
European Stock Exchanges Position to Reverse Lower
Monday, 31 Aug 2009 1:08 EDT by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
Weekly Strategy

FTSE 100
Long-Term Technical Outlook

There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 4751, has been reached and is where the rally from 4096 is equal to 61.8% of the 3461-4521 rally. The next level is 5156, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook

The FTSE is setting up a Rising Wedge chart formation indicative of a bearish reversal ahead. Negative divergence on the RSI oscillator bolsters the downward bias. Near-term support is seen at 4888.90.
DAX
Long-Term Technical Outlook

There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 5506, has nearly been reached and is where the rally from 4524 is equal to 61.8% of the 3589-5176 rally. The next level is 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook

As with the FTSE, the German benchmark index is showing a bearish Rising Wedge with negative RSI divergence. A break of support at 55023 opens the door for a move to resistance-turned-support at 54420.
CAC 40
Long-Term Technical Outlook

There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 3535, has been reached and is where the rally from 2958 is equal to 61.8% of the 2466-3400 rally. The next level is 3892, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook

Another rising wedge is seen on the CAC 40, again with negative RSI divergence. Near-term support is seen at 3668.40. A break below this will likely see a test of the psychologically significant 3600.00 handle.
IBEX 35
Long-Term Technical Outlook

There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top. The first level, 1124, has nearly been reached and is where the rally from 925 is equal to 61.8% of the 670-993 rally. The next level is 1247, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook

Spanish shares fit in with positioning noted on other key exchanges: a Rising Wedge points to a bearish bias, and negative RSI divergence offers confirmation. A break below the wedge bottom at 1141.81 opens the door for a move to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (1128.42).






FTSE MIB
Long-Term Technical Outlook

There are 2 levels that most likely produce a top and neither has been reached. The first level, 22798, is where the rally from 17626 is equal to 61.8% of the 12332-20702 rally. The next level is 25996, which is where the 2 bull legs would be equal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook

The FTSE/MIB looks essentially the same as other European benchmarks, with a Rising Wedge and negative RSI divergence clearly in place. A move below the wedge bottom at 22609.38 will aim below the 22500.00 handle.

Finance
Australia Stocks to Send Commodities Plunging, Statistics May Show
Thursday, 27 Aug 2009 5:34 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment

Figure 1
When adjusting for a 10-month lag between commodities and Australian equities we find that the movement in the two have a correlation of 0.96. A simple linear regression between the effect of stocks and commodities, with a 10-month lag, yields estimated values which quite accurately mimic much of the action seen from stocks in recent months. To be more specific the equation that we get from our regression model presents itself as:
Commodities (10 months ahead) = 31.0755 + 0.047581 * ASX 200
Figure 2 presents the mentioned estimated values in green, following the actual values in red.

Figure 2
What can we conclude from this regression model?
For one, we could say that the plunge in Australian equities seen over the last year has not been fully priced into commodities. That is, price action on these earthly assets may still have further to go before hitting a solid bottom. According to the model, commodities might not hit a floor for another two months. Should this prove to be true, commodities are likely to surge ahead, possibly in January. A violent swing upward in the price of such goods would be consistent with the upside volatility that had been seen in equities throughout the Spring of 2009.
Note:
The RBA Commodity Price Index does not include energy. Any recent spikes in oil or historically low natural gas prices will not be factored into this model. The Index itself has the following weightings:
Rural Commodities: 29.1%
Beef and Veal: 9.6%
Wool: 8.6%
Sugar: 5.2%
Base Metals: 15.0%
Aluminum: 8.6%
Copper: 2.7%
Nickel: 1.4%
Other Resources: 51.8%
Gold: 16.3%
Coking Coal: 13.8%
Iron Ore: 9.3%
Written by Luis Gil, CFD Analyst
Finance
U.S. Stocks Lose Most in Six Weeks on Fed, Treasury Report
Monday, 17 Aug 2009 6:41 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
US Session Key Developments
- Federal Reserve and Treasury Says Credit Conditions Worsened
- TALF Program to Be Extended Three Months
- Foreign Cash Flows to U.S. Collapsed in June
U.S. stocks declined by the largest amount since July 2 after a new Federal Reserve report showed that bank lending contracted in the second quarter. Indeed many had not been prepared for this announcement as surging equities may have led many to perceive that pain-staking conditions in the credit markets had been alleviating. Indeed, the Fed added that it would be extending its emergency TALF program by three months. TALF loans collaterlized with newly issued Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and older Collaterlized Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) will continue to be issued through the end of March 2010 while those backed by newly issued CMBS will be extended through the end of June 2010. Investors quickly sold shares once it was made clearer by the Fed that further stimulative action would be required of them. If that wasn’t enough to inspire the selling spree, the level of investment driven to the U.S. from abroad collapsed in June. Total Net Treasury International Capital (TIC) shrank $31.2 billion in June, wildly undershooting the consensus estimate of a rise in such flows of $23.0 billion. The unsettling may lead many to believe that the world’s trust in the American bond market may bay dwindling.
DOW 30 9135.34 -186.06 -2.00%
Dow stocks took a beating today, with the worst of its sectors, Basic Materials, plummeting 4.73%. Alcoa, one of the two sector’s members, led the free-fall when it shed 6.48% on an indication from the Fed that the economy might not be performing as well as many had anticipated.
SPX 500 979.73 -24.36 -2.43%
Financials were the second-hardest hit sector in the S&P 500 with Wells Fargo and Bank of America declining 5.16% and 4.77%, respectively. Word that credit tightness in the second quarter had actually grown worse shook investors’ confidence in the banking sector. Implied volatility on the benchmark, as shown by the VIX index, rose to it’s highest level in five weeks. In percentage terms, the VIX, rose by the largest amound since April 20.
NAS 100 1930.84 -54.68 -2.75%
NASDAQ stocks performed the worst of the three U.S. benchmark equity indices, with Technology shedding 2.81%. Apple, one of the day’s biggest losers, declining 4.26%, lost out after Dell announced it would be devloping a smart phone for China Mobile Ltd.
Written by Luis Gil, CFDTrading Analyst
For questions and comments email lgil@fxcm.com
Finance
Daily Commodities Fundamentals: Commodities Close Lower Entering the Weekend
Friday, 14 Aug 2009 4:13 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
North American Commodity Update, Last Updated 8/14/2009 3:51 PM EST (GMT = EDT +5:00)
Commodities – Energy
Crude Sold Following a Disappointing Consumer Confidence Report
Crude Oil (WTI) $67.530 -$2.990 -4.24%
Crude Oil future prices plummeted today, ending the week with a 3.5% decline back below the psychological $70-per-barrel level. After a week’s worth of important fundamental data releases including the FOMC rate decision and Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence report turned out to be the main market mover. While this may seem strange, it is not that surprising when put into context; recent data releases have encouraged investors to re-enter higher yielding assets in hopes of a global economic recovery. Equity markets have rallied, which has translated to a bid up of Crude future prices as speculators predict a short-to-medium term hike in demand. Many believed that the United States would be one of the first countries to successfully escape the prolonged global recession; however, today’s consumer confidence figure revealed that Americans are not willing to take the lead. Consumer confidence was expected to increase from 66.0 to 69.0, but upon release, the report showed that the figure had actually dropped to 63.2. As a result, Crude future prices faced a severe sell-off as investors return towards safer assets and wait for an economic turnaround. Looking towards next week, crude could potentially retest the $70-per-barrel level before giving in to the true, market-moving fundamentals.
Department of Energy Inventories

Commodities – Metals
Stronger Dollar and Bearish Outlook Drive Precious Metals Lower
Gold $949.000 -$7.500 -0.78%
Gold future prices finished lower to close out the week, again losing as the US dollar strengthened. After a worse-than-expected US Confidence Report, the greenback gained across the board as investors flocked towards the relatively safe dollar and fled from higher-yielding assets (equity markets fell significantly). Recall that Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely as investors use the metal to hedge against dollar weakness/inflation. Simultaneous to the dollar’s advance, today’s Euro-Zone and US CPI reports revealed that inflation is not likely to be of concern in the near-term. This fact was already suggested in numerous global bank statements during the last two weeks. Though Gold’s correlation with the dollar index is not remarkably high, dollar strength should continue to be an indication for Gold price action. Therefore, any encouraging fundamental releases that heighten risk appetite will likely translate into future price increases as well.
Silver $14.675 -$0.312 -2.08%
Silver futures could not hold on to yesterday’s gains during a volatile day of trading; the metal lost nearly 2% as investors turned bearish following the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence report. Though Silver is considered a precious metal like Gold, it has seen far more drastic price action due to its other application. Because Silver doubles as an industrial input, it is particulary sensitive to any changes in global economic outlook. Despite a better-than-expected US Industrial Production figure (0.5% actual vs. 0.4% expected), investors’ recent bullish forecast was not carried into the weekend. As for next week, expect Silver to follow investor sentiment; only time will tell which direction that will be.
-Written by Jay Steinberg, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to JSteinberg@fxcm.com
Finance
Daily Commodities Fundamentals: Commodities Open Week on a High Note
Monday, 3 Aug 2009 4:16 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
North American Commodity Update, Last Updated 8/3/2009 4:06 PM EST (GMT = EDT +5:00)
Commodities – Energy
Crude Prices Gain due to Chinese Consumption, European PMI Figures
Crude Oil (WTI) $71.420 +$1.970 +2.84%
Crude Oil future prices shot up above $72-per-barrel during intraday trading, starting the new week by gaining an additional 3%. Crude prices begin climbing early on in Asian trading, as new reports emerged that Chinese consumption of Crude, which accounts for nearly 45% of all Asian consumption, had increased. Many analysts expect China to be the first country to successfully escape the global recession, so the country’s improved figure may be perceived as an indicator for near-term global growth. The European PMI figures exceeded expectations today, led by the UK number that reached 50.8. A reading above 50 actually indicates expansion as opposed to contraction; the reading had been below 50 since late last year. The PMI reports heightened risk appetite in the futures market, as any signal of near-term economic expansion will likely increase demand for Crude. However, recall that just last week, US Crude inventories were largely disappointing, leading to a substantial 6.5% decline in Crude future prices. If Wednesday’s new stockpile report reveals heightened demand for Crude, the market could see significant upside.
Department of Energy Inventories

Commodities – Metals
Precious Metals Push Forward Hit Recent Highs
Gold $959.300 +$3.500 +0.37%
Gold future prices reached a 2-month high today after closing up around $4 to $960. Prices increased marginally by 0.3%, significantly less than the gains realized by Crude and Silver. Widespread dollar weakness was most responsible for Gold’s increase today, as the greenback fell across the board (excluding the Japanese Yen). The Dollar Index appeared to experience a breakout during today’s trading, as numerous currencies (including the commodity-correlated Australian and Canadian dollars) hit new yearly highs. Recall that Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely as investors use the metal to hedge against dollar weakness. Fundamental data does not seem to be supportive of Gold’s increase of late, as inflation remains subdued and physical demand remains low. Regardless, as long as risk appetite remains, investors could choose to ignore the facts and extend the rally. If they become satisfied with the price increase, supports could falter leading to a significant retracement.
Silver $14.250 +$0.310 +2.22%
Although prices retraced slightly since reaching 7-week highs during intraday trading, Silver futures traded upwards of $14-per-ounce after adding nearly $0.300. Like Gold, the dollar’s weakness contributed to Silver’s gain, but other factors played in that led to the metal’s significantly more notable price increase (about 2.5% compared to Gold’s 0.3%). In addition to serving as a precious metal, Silver also possesses an industrial application that makes it more sensitive to positive industrial reports. As mentioned, the European PMI figures exceeded expectations and heightened risk appetite. The US ISM Manufacturing report also came in better-than-expected, which further advanced Silver future prices. Tomorrow may be another volatile day for commodities; The RBA’s rate decision is due overnight, along with Swiss CPI. At 8:30 AM EST, the US Personal Income and Personal Expenditure reports could be market-moving.
-Written by Jay Steinberg, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to JSteinberg@fxcm.com
Finance
Global Macro Weekly: Treasury Price Action More Reflective of Underlying Fundamentals
Monday, 3 Aug 2009 9:32 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
With the exception of the 10-Year, all other markets are pushing to fresh 2009 highs as investor risk appetite improves following the release of much better Q2 earning results and a more solid outlook for the global economy. However, we continue to remain suspicious of any rallies in risk appetite as reflected in the global macro markets. While we have seen some impressive buying back into risk, we still hang onto the idea that market participants will once again look to pare back risk, as the reality of uncertainty within the global economy persists. As such, we contend that price action in the 10-Year is more reflective of the underlying fundamentals.

EUR/USD
EUR/USD – Price action remains extremely choppy with the market whipsawing between 1.4000 and 1.4340 in recent trade. However, at this point it appears as though bulls are winning out, with any pullbacks easily met by intense buying. A closer look at the weekly suggests that we are on the verge of another major upside break following consolidation since May, which if broken, would project gains towards 1.5000. Look for a break above 1.4340 and close above the 100-Week SMA to confirm. Strategy: STAND ASIDE
S&P 500 INDEX
S&P 500 Index – The market is now trading back to some consolidation highs from October and November of 2008, and with daily studies trading into overbought territory, the greater risks from here are for a significant corrective pullback over the coming days/weeks. The broader trend is still bearish and a medium-term lower top is now sought out ahead of the next drop. At a minimum, more consolidation is to be expected which should result in a sell-off towards 850-900. Strategy: LOOK TO SELL
CRUDE OIL
Crude Oil – A minor sell-off in the previous week has now been fully negated with the market intent on retesting the 2009 highs above $73 from late June. At this point, daily studies still show room to run and we would expect to see a break back above $73 to fresh 2009 highs in the $75 area over the coming sessions. However, once $75 is reached, we would recommend looking for opportunities to fade and additional rallies. A break back below $63 is now required to take pressure off of the topside. Strategy: LOOK TO SELL
10-YEAR TREASURY
10-Year Treasury – While a compelling argument can be made for some bearish consolidation here ahead of the next major drop below the 2009 lows at 114-08, we continue to favor the bullish side, arguing for the formation of a major base. However, the market will need to break back above 119 to confirm our constructive outlook with the break to trigger a double bottom that will project fresh upside back towards the 124 area over the coming weeks. Below 114-08 negates. Strategy: LOOK TO BUY
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the “distribution” list.
Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
“Indicator of the Day” – A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
“Midday Snapshot” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
“Scandi Daily” – A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)
Finance
Daily Commodities Fundamentals: Commodities End the Week on a Bullish Note
Friday, 31 Jul 2009 4:27 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
North American Commodity Update, Last Updated 7/31/2009 4:30 PM EST (GMT = EDT +5:00)
Commodities – Energy
Crude Prices Finish Week Off Strong
Crude Oil (WTI) $69.220 +$2.280 +3.41%
Crude Oil future prices advanced further today, marking a complete retracement of Wednesday’s near 6.5% decline. Mixed fundamental data, including the US 2Q GDP report, led to Crude’s near 3% increase up towards $69-per-barrel. At 8:30 AM EST, the Department of Commerce reported a 1.0% contraction in GDP, less than the 1.5% expectation. However, further analysis is required to fully understand the report. In the report, 1Q GDP was revised down to -6.4% from -5.5%, meaning that the recession had been even more extreme than we thought. Also, despite the bullish total GDP figure, US Personal Consumption (a component of GDP) fell by 1.2%, a steeper decline than the projected 0.5% fall. Personal consumption is a leading indicator for future economic growth, as it can indicate both consumer confidence and spending. Many believe that the 2Q GDP was inflated by another one of its components, Government Expenditures. Regardless, commodity traders were bullish following the news, leading to Crude’s increase. It will be interesting to see if Crude can finally hold onto these gains even though demand remains extremely weak. Next week could prove to be volatile, as three major national banks (BoE, ECB, RBA) are all due for their respective key lending rate decisions.
Department of Energy Inventories

Commodities – Metals
Precious Metals End Higher After Volatile Week of Trading
Gold $954.100 +$16.800 +1.79%
As expected, Gold continued to gain during intraday trading, again breaking through the psychological $950-per-ounce level before closing around $956. Today’s 2% price increase was largely due to extreme US dollar weakness, as investors again sold the safe dollar in favor of higher yielding currencies. The Dollar Index actually broke through key support level today around 78.3 before re-establishing itself, preventing breakout losses for the greenback. All the major currencies had gained over 1% on the dollar (excluding the Canadian dollar) as of 4:00 PM EST. Recall that Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely as speculators use the metal to hedge against dollar weakness and/or inflation.
Silver $13.905 +$0.420 +3.11%
Silver closed the week on a positive note, adding another 3% to what has become a volatile three days. Like Gold, Silver benefitted from today’s extreme dollar weakness against its major competitors. Foreign currencies rallied against the greenback as risk appetite drove dollar to the absolute edge of a breakout. The US 2Q GDP report, though not immediately influential, ended up being a significant market mover today. On Monday, the US ISM Manufacturing figure is due at 10:00 AM EST. The survey questions US industry executives about future production, inventories, employment, etc. It has potential to drive Silver prices upon its release.
-Written by Jay Steinberg, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to JSteinberg@fxcm.com
Finance
Stocks Decline For Second Day After Plummeting Durable Goods Data
Wednesday, 29 Jul 2009 6:45 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
US Session Key Developments
- Durable Goods Orders Decline 2.5% in June
- Colorado and Six Neighboring States Stabilizing, Says Fed “Beige Book”
Stocks Decline For Second Day After Plummeting Durable Goods Data
U.S. stocks declined for a second straight day after Durable Goods Orders in June plummeted 2.5% – much worse than the anticipated contraction of 0.6%. To make matters worse, the previous month’s release was revised downward by o.5 percentage points to 1.3%. Basic Materials as a sector plummeted the most in the S&P 500, by 2.36% on the news. Alcoa and DuPont slipped 2.22% and 1.86%, respectively. The Federal Reserve released its “Beige Book” survey of the region surrounding and including Colorado. In it, the central bank’s research team found that economic conditions had “showed further signs of stabilization in June.”
Dow 30 9070.72 -26.00 -0.29%
A mixed day on the Dow saw six of its nine sectors decline with the broader market. Oil & Gas was the second-worst performing sector with Chevron losing 1.79% on speculation the crude supplies had increased.
SPX 500 975.15 -4.47 -0.46%
Today’s decline saw implied volatility on the S&P 500 rise by 0.6 percentage points to 25.61%. The rise in the VIX index implies that market “fear” is at a two and a half week high. The down day ultimately forced 66% of the stocks in the 500-stock index to finish in the red.
NAS 100 1967.76 -7.75 -0.39%
Only the Health Care sector managed to finish with its head above water with only 49% of its stocks ending the day ahead. Technology stocks were hit brutely after Yahoo plummeted 12.08% on speculation that regulators would not approve of its search engine deal with Microsoft.
Finance
Daily Commodities Fundamentals: Crude Loses 6.5%, Leads Other Commodities Downward
Wednesday, 29 Jul 2009 4:21 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment

North American Commodity Update, Last Updated 7/29/2009 4:20 PM EST (GMT = EDT +5:00)
Commodities – Energy
Crude Prices Tank Amid Continued Demand Concern
Crude Oil (WTI) $62.890 -$4.340 -6.46%
After adding nearly $10-per-barrel over the past two weeks, Crude Oil future prices plummeted straight through the psychological $65 level to close below $63. The 6.5% decline marks the biggest intraday loss for the commodity since mid-April. Crude’s descent continued from yesterday, picking up steam early in the US session following the release of a disappointing US Durable Goods Orders report, which showed a 2.5% pullback as opposed to the expected -0.6% change . Durable Goods, by definition, last over three years, so many investors use their growth rate as an indication of future growth. At 10:30 AM EST, the Department of Energy published its Crude Oil Inventory figure, which was the catalyst for today’s extreme price movement. Stockpiles increased by nearly 5.5 million barrels last week despite analyst expectations of a 1.5 million barrel reduction. Demand for Crude had already been week this summer, but investors had ignored this fact when bidding up future prices; the alarming figure from the DOE forced the market to succumb to the basic economic principle of supply and demand. Though slight retracements have been well-documented after such significant price declines the fundamental concerns remain; Crude could begin to fall back to mid-July lows and re-test $60 later this week.
Department of Energy Inventories

Commodities – Metals
Gold Slips, Silver Falls on Weak Day for Precious Metals
Gold $929.400 -$9.700 -1.03%
Relatively speaking, Gold prices held steady during today’s trading, losing only 1% intraday. After a new batch of disappointing fundamental data reports, the dollar began to climb against its major competitors as investors favored risk aversion. The prospect of a prolonged economic recession scared investors out of higher yielding currencies and muted any existing inflationary fears after last week’s encouraging global news. Recall that Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely as investors use the metal to hedge against dollar weakness/inflation. As the CFTC hearings rage on, the broader commodity market may continue to suffer. Just as Gold did not see as substantial gains as Silver last week, it will likely withstand substantial losses as well.
Silver $13.295 -$0.445 -3.24%
Monday’s $14-per-ounce level for Silver future prices is certainly a thing of the past; continuing from yesterday’s decline, Silver slumped an additional 3.5% today. The US Durable Goods Orders report weighed on Silver future prices, as the prospect of a prolonged economic recession is becoming increasingly probably and may be confirmed by Friday’s US GDP report. Depressing fundamental data is taking control over future price speculation, especially amid the CFTC hearings as traders maintain a “wait and see” approach. Tomorrow’s German unemployment rate and Japan’s CPI report should be the main market movers for Silver, as investors will have new insight into the health of the global economy.
-Written by Jay Steinberg, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to JSteinberg@fxcm.com
Finance
Daily Commodities Fundamentals: Broader Commodity Market Retreats Amid CFTC Speculation and Falling Risk Appetite
Tuesday, 28 Jul 2009 4:07 EDT by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment
North American Commodity Update, Last Updated 7/28/2009 4:00 PM EST (GMT = EDT +5:00)
Commodities – Energy
Crude Prices Fall As CFTC Hearings Begin
Crude Oil (WTI) $67.230 -$1.080 -1.58%
Crude Oil future prices dropped significantly today, falling nearly 2.5% during intraday before paring some of its losses. Crude prices started off the day slightly higher only to begin a steady descent following the US Consumer Confidence report, which revealed worse-than-expected results (46.6 actual vs. 49.0 expected). Continued unemployment increases seem to be the primary reason for the disappointing confidence figure; just last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke said that the unemployment rate could increase for a few more years. European equity indices fell lower today, while the US indices appear to be following suit. Poor earnings from both Office Depot and US Steel Corporation discouraged investors even after the S&P Case Shiller Index improved for the first month in three years. However, while all of the above was market moving, the most influential price driver in the broader commodity market today was the beginning of the CFTC hearings regarding speculation restriction. Commodities fell across the board as investors fear that CFTC Chairman will attempt to impose strict position limits in energy markets. The results of the hearings will likely weigh heavily on Crude future prices.
Upcoming Department of Energy Inventories

Commodities – Metals
Precious Metals Decline Near 2% on CFTCSpeculation and Dollar Strength
Gold $939.600 -$16.700 -1.75%
Gold future prices retreated back below the psychological $950-per-ounce level today as part of a broad commodity pullback today. Investors are selling out of Gold and taking a “wait and see” approach as the CFTC hearings push forward. The results of the CFTC meetings this week will likely be the main driver behind Gold future prices in addition to risk appetite/aversion. The US dollar outperformed the Euro, Pound, and Franc today, but lost to the ultra-safe Japanese Yen and impressive Australian dollar. Recall that Gold and the greenback tend to trade inversely as investors use the metal to hedge against dollar weakness/inflation. Tomorrow’s German CPI report will likely be a market mover for Gold future prices.
Silver $13.725 -$0.265 -1.89%
After breaking above the $14-per-ounce level yesterday, Silver followed the other commodities downward today, losing approximately 2% during intraday trading. Like Gold, tomorrow’s CPI report will move Silver future prices; however, the US Durable Goods Orders figure will serve as a leading indicator for future industrial production. Because durable goods are expected to last more than three years, an increase in orders will signal heightened optimism in the marketplace and potential growth. Tomorrow should be an interesting day for Silver, as the fundamental data reports will be measured against any news emerging from the CFTC hearings.
-Written by Jay Steinberg, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to JSteinberg@fxcm.com
