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A Strong Start To The New Year For The Markets, But Will It Last?

A sense of optimism has met the markets at the turn of the year. General risk appetite has improved as volatility continues to pull back. However, the market will soon have to ask whether this is a true reversal in sentiment or a short-term recovery as market participants look to reinvest their capital after squaring their books through the end of 2008.

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A Rebound In Liquidity May Put Risk And Carry Trade Interests Back On Pace

Thin Liquidity Helps Market Sentiment But Fundamentals Still Bleak

Technical Outlook

Nasdaq Looking To Test November High After Break Of Resistance

Index Strat Risk Target
DJIA Flat    
NASDAQ    Flat    
S&P500 Flat    

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Fundamental Outlook

Futures Point To Lower Open as Labor Concerns Mount on Alcoa Announcement

Alcoa, the largest U.S. aluminum producer, announced it will cut more than 15,000 jobs, reduce capital spending and sell four businesses as it reduces production due to the global economic downturn.

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Technical Outlook

European Stocks Rise to Challenge Key Resistance Levels

Index Strat Risk Target
FTSE Flat     
DAX    Flat    
CAC 40 Bullish  2838
TBD

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Fundamental Outlook

European Stocks Look Set To Hold Current Levels Into New Year

European stock markets are unlikely to see substantial catalysts for directional momentum going into the New Year holiday.

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Technical Outlook

Momentum Will Need To Follow Asian Equity Breakouts Or Bull Trends Will Stall

Index Strat Risk Target
NKY Long  8,500 9,475
ASX    Pending    
HSI Pending    

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Fundamental Outlook

Fed Rate Cuts Rallies Bullish Convictions, But Was This Last Ditch Effort A Boon For Asian Shares?

The open of the Asian session has already been mapped out by the momentum built up through the Tuesday’s New York session.

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Technical Outlook

NYMEX Crude Oil Forecast Remains Bullish on Break of Resistance

Index Strat Risk Target
Oil  Flat    
Gold    Flat    
Silver  Long  8.51 14 

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Fundamental Outlook

NYMEX Crude Oil Unchanged Despite Flare-Ups in Israeli-Palestinian Tensions

Crude oil finished relatively flat through the end of the NYMEX trading session, as dismal US economic data counterbalanced continued geopolitical tensions from the ongoing middle-eastern armed conflict. News of further Israeli attacks on Gaza weighed on trader sentiment, but few seemed willing to force major moves ahead of tomorrow’s important Crude Oil Inventories results.

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Weekly Technical Outlook

Global Treasuries In Different Stages Of Retracements: From Reversals To Short-Term Pull Backs

Index Strat Risk Target
T-Note Short 128-16 119-16
Gilt    Flat    
Bund Long 122.25 TBD

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Weekly Fundamental Outlook

A New Year Brings Liquidity Back To Treasuries And Focus On The New President's Stimulus Plans

Looking out over the coming week, scheduled and unscheduled event risk will likely sway the market. From the economic calendar, a series of indicators will gauge the full health of the consumer. The market-moving potential lies with the non-farm payrolls report.

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Technical Outlook

Euro Expected to Form a Low Soon; British Pound Breakout Trade

Index Strat Risk Target
EUR/USD Flat    
USD/JPY    Flat    
GBP/USD Long 1.4347 TBD

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Fundamental Outlook

US Dollar Gains Against Euro, Yen Despite Dismal Data, Slump Versus High Yielders

The US dollar has consistently been trading stronger than the euro, Swiss franc, and Japanese yen but has also remained weak versus the British pound and the commodity dollars. Much of this price action had to do with emerging signs of building risk appetite, such as the slow decline of the CBOE’s VIX volatility index below 40, despite the fact US economic data was broadly disappointing.

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