Technicals

Dow Looking To Test 10,000 With Break of Trendline Support

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow has sharply fallen after breaking below trend line support; the exaggerated move appears vulnerable for a retrace. However, a test of 10,000 appears likely with a break below exposing 9,679-11/2 low.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow has broken below trend line support where it is now coming up against former congestion at 1,085. We are also see the convergence of a short-term trend line which could lead to a retrace. A break below exposes 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate with a break below trend line support. Support could come at 2,113-11/27 low where we are also seeing a short-term trend converge.

Dow Threatening Trendline Support, Is A Top in Place?

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow continues to trade along trend line support and is now looking to target resistance at 11,000, but we saw a brief break below yesterday which could signal a top is forming. Former resistance at 10,333-50.0% Fibo may now serve as support if we see a break below the current trendline.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow continues to trade along trendline support. However, we have seen resistance at 1,150 following its break above 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666. A break above the psychological level would expose 1,200, with a move below trend line support leaving 1,085 as the next barrier.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has broken above Fibo resistance at 2,251 which could now serve as support. The tech laden index continues to trade along trendline support which has it on target to test 2,500.

Dow Upside Potential Remains With Trendline Support Holding

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow continues to trade along trend line support and is now looking to target resistance at 11,000. A break above the psychological level would leave the 61.8% Fibo level of 14,198-6469. The Blue chip index has yet to test pre-Lehman levels which could be the ultimate target before a major retrace. Former resistance at 10,333-50.0% Fibo may now serve as support if we see a break below the current trendline.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow continues to trade along trendline support. However, we have seen resistance at 1,150 following its break above 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666. A break above the psychological level would expose 1,200.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

S&P 500 Continues to See Rising Trend Line Support

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow is starting to clear resistance at 10,581-61.8% Fibo of 13,136-6,470 which has us turning our focus to the 61.8% Fibo level of the decline from the all-time high . The Blue chip index looks to be on pace to test 11,000 where we could see formidable resistance from the psychological level.  However, upside potential remains as the Dow has yet top test the pre-Lehman levels which were already pricing in a recession.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 has traded along trendline support since breaking above resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 to test 1,150. If support holds then look for a break above 1,150 to test 1,200.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has broken above Fibo resistance at 2,251 which could now serve as support. The tech laden index continues to trade along trendline support which has it on target to test 2,500.

Dow Upside Increases With Break Above Fibo Resistance

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow continues to be held in check by resistance at 10,581-31.8% Fibo of 13,136-6,470. Although the value chip index is trading above the technical level it hasn’t broken clean from it which maintains its relevancy and leaves open the door for a possible retrace. We expect that the current triangle formation will continue with a possible test of 11,000.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 has traded along trendline support since breaking above resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 to test 1,150. If support holds then look for a break above 1,150 to test 1,200.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has broken above Fibo resistance at 2,251which could now serve as support. The tech laden index continues to trade along trendline support which has it on target to 2,500.

Dow Upside Remains, But Top Looming

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow continues to be held in check by resistance at 10,581-31.8% Fibo of 13,136-6,470. Every day the blue chip index holds below the formidable level increases the chances of a re-test of range support neat 10,230 with potential 10,000. A break above exposes 11,000.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 sharply has traded back above resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 reopening the door for a test of 1,150. A break below 1,100 increases downside risks.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has broken above Fibo resistance at 2,251which could now serve as support. However, a break back below the technical level would increases downside risks. Longer –term trendline support come into play near 2,200 which could thwart any bearish momentum.

Dow Fails At Fibo Resistance, Increasing Downside Risks

As is often the case in Elliott, the picture is becoming much clearer as the rally has matured and nears its end.  The advance from the March low is a complex W-X-Y (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) rally.  Notice the broadening formation since August.  Broadening patterns almost always signal tops (called ending diagonals in Elliott terminology).  Levels to watch for resistance are 10365 and 10495 (100% extension).

The Dow, after briefly breaking from its recent range, found resistance at 10,581-31.8% Fibo of 13,136-6,470. The formidable level increases the chances of a re-test of range support neat 10,230 with potential to medium term trendline support at 10,020.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow.  The count from the March low is the same but the recent surge that propelled the Dow to a new high has yet to do the same for the S&P.  A broadening formation from the August low is evident here as well, which again does warn of a top.  A new high exposes 1110.30 (top of gap from October 2008 in December contract), then 1134 and 1159 (100% extension) in the index.

The S&P 500 sharply has traded back below resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 reopening the door for a test of trendline support at 1,100.

The NASDAQ pattern is the same as the S&P pattern in that the index has yet to make a new high.  The more volatile index also broke a support line and dropped below its October low (red line) – something that the other indexes failed to do.  Clearly, the technical situation for bulls is deteriorating.  A new high would expose 2341 (100% extension).

The NASDAQ has broken above Fibo resistance at 2,251which could now serve as support. However, a break back below the technical level would increases downside risks. Longer –term trendline support come into play near 2,200 which could thwart any bearish momentum.

Dow Looks To Trade Sideways On Holiday Volume

The Dow continues to remain range bound and heading into the Holiday trading session traders increases the chances that we could see further consolidation. The compressed price action still leaves the door open for a potential breakout with a break above 10,500 a bullish sign and a drop under 10,200 favoring a bearish move.

The S&P 500 sharply is looking to re-test the upper bound of the current range where we see staunch resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 increasing the chances of a retrace. If the current trend continues, then look for a test of the lower bound at 1,080.

The NASDAQ continues to remain in an ascending triangle pattern and appears ripe for a breakout. A break above Fibo resistance could lead to a test of 2,400. A break below trendline resistance brings back into play the longer-term triangle formation.

Dow Consolidation Increases Breakout Potential

As is often the case in Elliott, the picture is becoming much clearer as the rally has matured and nears its end.  The advance from the March low is a complex W-X-Y (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) rally.  Notice the broadening formation since August.  Broadening patterns almost always signal tops (called ending diagonals in Elliott terminology).  Levels to watch for resistance are 10365 and 10495 (100% extension).

The Dow ended three days of consecutive gains yesterday as it held to its recent range. The Blue chip index has found staunch resistance at 10,500 which could set it up for a retracement today back toward 10,000 and trend line support. Upside potential may be limited with resistance looming at 10,581-61.8% Fibo of 13,136-6,469. Traders should watch for a potential breakout with a breach of either bound of the current range (10,200-10,500).

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow.  The count from the March low is the same but the recent surge that propelled the Dow to a new high has yet to do the same for the S&P.  A broadening formation from the August low is evident here as well, which again does warn of a top.  A new high exposes 1110.30 (top of gap from October 2008 in December contract), then 1134 and 1159 (100% extension) in the index.

The S&P 500 continues to consolidate after failing to break above resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 which could foretell of a breakout. A test of trendline support near 1,080 remains a strong possibility the longer the broader index remains below resistance. A break above the Fibo level exposes 1,150.

The NASDAQ pattern is the same as the S&P pattern in that the index has yet to make a new high.  The more volatile index also broke a support line and dropped below its October low (red line) – something that the other indexes failed to do.  Clearly, the technical situation for bulls is deteriorating.  A new high would expose 2341 (100% extension).

The NASDAQ has started to form an ascending triangle pattern which is a sign for a potential bullish breakout. However, if trendline resistance holds then we could see the continuation of the longer developing triangle which equals more concentrated price action with the possibility of another test of support near 2,095.

NASDAQ Testing Short Term Trendline Support

As is often the case in Elliott, the picture is becoming much clearer as the rally has matured and nears its end.  The advance from the March low is a complex W-X-Y (a-b-c-x-a-b-c) rally.  Notice the broadening formation since August.  Broadening patterns almost always signal tops (called ending diagonals in Elliott terminology).  Levels to watch for resistance are 10365 and 10495 (100% extension).

The Dow continues to trade along trendline resistance which is steering the blue chip index toward a test of 10,581-61.8% Fibo of 13,136-6,469. However, 10,500 has been a formidable level which increases the likelihood of a retrace back toward support at 10,000 with potential to trendline support.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow.  The count from the March low is the same but the recent surge that propelled the Dow to a new high has yet to do the same for the S&P.  A broadening formation from the August low is evident here as well, which again does warn of a top.  A new high exposes 1110.30 (top of gap from October 2008 in December contract), then 1134 and 1159 (100% extension) in the index.

The S&P 500 has started to trade heavy after failing to break above resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 opening the door for a test of trendline support near 1,060. A break above the Fibo level exposes 1,150.

The NASDAQ pattern is the same as the S&P pattern in that the index has yet to make a new high.  The more volatile index also broke a support line and dropped below its October low (red line) – something that the other indexes failed to do.  Clearly, the technical situation for bulls is deteriorating.  A new high would expose 2341 (100% extension).

The NASDAQ continues to trade after finding short-term trendline resistance, opening the door for a test of trendline support near 2,090. However, the tech-laden index is up against short-term trendline support which could limit further losses.

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