Technicals

Dow Threatens 10,000 Exposing Downside Risks

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The Dow is threatening 10,000 and given the sharp bearish decline from yesterday there could be sufficient momentum to push the blue chip index below the monumental psychological level. A break below support would expose 9,721-38.2% Fibo of 8,087-10,719 followed by 9,679-11/2 low.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 has cleared former congestion putting it on track to test support at 1,043-38.2% Fibo of 869-1,150 with the 1,029-11/2 low as the next barrier.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has broken below the rising trend line and is looking to test support at 2,113-11/27 low followed by 2,024-11/2 low.

U.S. Equities Threatening Support Levels

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

After a period of support the Dow has seen its advance slowed by resistance at 10,333-50.0% Fibo of 14,198-6,469.  A break below support would expose 9,679-11/2 low but that may follow a period of consolidation.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 is looking to break below trend line support as it has started to consolidate. A break below leaves support at 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has found support from the rising trend line but the bearish trend remains intact and another test of the level could lead to a break below. The next level would be found at   2,113-11/27 low followed by 2,024-11/2 low.

Is A Dow Top In Place?

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.  

Dow Testing Channel Support After Steep Pullback

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The pace of the Dow’s decline has slowed but it remains on track to test the significant psychological level of 10,000. A break below support would expose 9,679-11/2 low but that may follow a period of consolidation.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 decline has started to pick up steam following a brief period of consolidation sending it below former congestion at 1,085. The move below leaves support at 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate and is now threatening rising trend line support near 2,147 which would leave  2,113-11/27 low as support. The tech laden index appears on course for an ultimate test of 2,024-11/2 low.

NASDAQ Threatens Trendline Support, Exposing Additional Losses

The pace of the Dow’s decline has slowed but it remains on track to test the significant psychological level of 10,000. A break below support would expose 9,679-11/2 low but that may follow a period of consolidation.

The S&P 500 decline has started to pick up steam following a brief period of consolidation sending it below former congestion at 1,085. The below leaves support at 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate and is now threatening rising trend line support near 2,147 which would leave  2,113-11/27 low as support. The tech laden index appears on course for an ultimate test of 2,024-11/2 low.

Dow Slide Looks To Continue As Support Remains In The Distance

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow has begun to consolidate its losses after breaking below trend line support. A test of 10,000 appears likely with a break below exposing 9,679-11/2 low.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow has has begun to consolidate and is now coming up against former congestion at 1,085. A converging short-term trend line is reinforcing support and could lead to a retrace. A break below exposes 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate with a break below trend line support. Support could come at rising trend line support near 2,154 or at 2,113-11/27 low.

Dow Looking To Test 10,000 With Break of Trendline Support

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow has sharply fallen after breaking below trend line support; the exaggerated move appears vulnerable for a retrace. However, a test of 10,000 appears likely with a break below exposing 9,679-11/2 low.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow has broken below trend line support where it is now coming up against former congestion at 1,085. We are also see the convergence of a short-term trend line which could lead to a retrace. A break below exposes 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate with a break below trend line support. Support could come at 2,113-11/27 low where we are also seeing a short-term trend converge.

Dow Threatening Trendline Support, Is A Top in Place?

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow continues to trade along trend line support and is now looking to target resistance at 11,000, but we saw a brief break below yesterday which could signal a top is forming. Former resistance at 10,333-50.0% Fibo may now serve as support if we see a break below the current trendline.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow continues to trade along trendline support. However, we have seen resistance at 1,150 following its break above 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666. A break above the psychological level would expose 1,200, with a move below trend line support leaving 1,085 as the next barrier.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has broken above Fibo resistance at 2,251 which could now serve as support. The tech laden index continues to trade along trendline support which has it on target to test 2,500.

Dow Upside Potential Remains With Trendline Support Holding

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow continues to trade along trend line support and is now looking to target resistance at 11,000. A break above the psychological level would leave the 61.8% Fibo level of 14,198-6469. The Blue chip index has yet to test pre-Lehman levels which could be the ultimate target before a major retrace. Former resistance at 10,333-50.0% Fibo may now serve as support if we see a break below the current trendline.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow continues to trade along trendline support. However, we have seen resistance at 1,150 following its break above 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666. A break above the psychological level would expose 1,200.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

S&P 500 Continues to See Rising Trend Line Support

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow is starting to clear resistance at 10,581-61.8% Fibo of 13,136-6,470 which has us turning our focus to the 61.8% Fibo level of the decline from the all-time high . The Blue chip index looks to be on pace to test 11,000 where we could see formidable resistance from the psychological level.  However, upside potential remains as the Dow has yet top test the pre-Lehman levels which were already pricing in a recession.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 has traded along trendline support since breaking above resistance at 1,120- 50.0% Fibo of 1,576- 666 to test 1,150. If support holds then look for a break above 1,150 to test 1,200.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has broken above Fibo resistance at 2,251 which could now serve as support. The tech laden index continues to trade along trendline support which has it on target to test 2,500.

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