Technicals

NASDAQ Looks To Extend Gains With Little Ressitance Ahead

The Dow gains have been slowed by resistance at 10,586- 61.8% Fibo extension of 13,136-6,460. The technical level could prove formidable considering it is the golden ratio of a major decline. Downside risk are to 10,400 where we find trendline support, a break above exposes 10,750 followed by 11,000.

The S&P 500 like the Dow has broke from its short-term wedge but is facing resistance at 1,144-61.8% Fibo of 1,440-665. A break above exposes 1,175, with downside risks to 1,100.

The NASDAQ continues to set fresh yearly highs and continues to be the outperformer of the U.S. indices. However, this could make it more susceptible to a bout of risk aversion.  Possible trend line resistance at 2,415 could slow current momentum with psychological resistance at 2,400 in the way as well. The next major barrier is the August 15, 2008 high of 2,473 which could be tested before any major retracement.

Fibo Resistance May Limit Dow’s Gains

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The Dow broke from its short-term triangle but found resistance at 10,586- 61.8% Fibo extension of 13,136-6,460. The technical level could prove formidable considering it is the golden ratio of a major decline. Downside risk are to 10,400 where we find trendline support, a break above exposes 10,750 followed by 11,000.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 like the Dow has broke from its short-term wedge but is facing resistance at 1,144-61.8% Fibo of 1,440-665. A break above exposes 1,175, with downside risks to 1,100.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has set a fresh yearly high of 2,335 which now leaves little in the way of solid resistance before the August 15, 2008 high of 2,473. The break of the trend lines drawn from the all-time high has seen gains accelerate which could be carried through into this week’s trading.

Dow Triangle Signals Potential Breakout

Recent Dow price action has developed a potential triangle formation which could signal the potential for a breakout.  The blue chip index appears to have breached the upper bound signaling a stronger move to the upside. However, this is a weak interpretation of the pattern which leaves us without significant conviction on the pending move. Nevertheless, a clear upward trend has emerged leaving potential to re-test 10,750.

The S&P 500 like the Dow is also in the midst of a bullish trend after finding trendline support. Look fro the continuation of the broader channel and a re-test of resistance at 1,144-61.8% Fibo.

The NASDAQ has broken resistance at 2,251-61.8% Fibo of 1,265-2,861 leaving the yearly high of 2,234as the next barrier. Continuation of the bullish trend leaves potential to 2,500.

Dow’s Hammer Candle Warns Of Reversal

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The Dow briefly broke below 10,000 to a low of 9,835 before retracing and closing back above the psychological level. The resulting hammer candle is typically a reversal sign which could see an extension of the bullish momentum that ended the week. However, another break below support would increase downside risks and expose 9,721-38.2% Fibo of 8,087-10,719 followed by 9,679-11/2 low.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 like the Dow saw a significant retracement and a resulting hammer candle which is a reversal signal. The broader index found support at 1,043-38.2% Fibo of 869-1,150 which could prove to be solid support going forward. A break below exposes 1,029-11/2 low as the next barrier.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has broken below the rising trend line and is looking to test support at 2,113-11/27 low followed by 2,024-11/2 low. Although not as pronounced as the other indices, the tech laden index also saw a hammer candle to end the week. So traders should watch for a short-term reversal before continuation of the broader bearish trend.

Dow Threatens 10,000 Exposing Downside Risks

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The Dow is threatening 10,000 and given the sharp bearish decline from yesterday there could be sufficient momentum to push the blue chip index below the monumental psychological level. A break below support would expose 9,721-38.2% Fibo of 8,087-10,719 followed by 9,679-11/2 low.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 has cleared former congestion putting it on track to test support at 1,043-38.2% Fibo of 869-1,150 with the 1,029-11/2 low as the next barrier.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has broken below the rising trend line and is looking to test support at 2,113-11/27 low followed by 2,024-11/2 low.

U.S. Equities Threatening Support Levels

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

After a period of support the Dow has seen its advance slowed by resistance at 10,333-50.0% Fibo of 14,198-6,469.  A break below support would expose 9,679-11/2 low but that may follow a period of consolidation.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 is looking to break below trend line support as it has started to consolidate. A break below leaves support at 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has found support from the rising trend line but the bearish trend remains intact and another test of the level could lead to a break below. The next level would be found at   2,113-11/27 low followed by 2,024-11/2 low.

Is A Dow Top In Place?

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.  

Dow Testing Channel Support After Steep Pullback

Testing support from a steep channel, a drop below would suggest that an important top is in place at 10730.  The next level of support is 9679, then 8878.  The level that produced the January top has been significant in recent years (2004-2006), which increases the likelihood that a more important is in place.

The pace of the Dow’s decline has slowed but it remains on track to test the significant psychological level of 10,000. A break below support would expose 9,679-11/2 low but that may follow a period of consolidation.

The S&P has already broken below its channel, which reinforces the topping theme.  Just as the Dow’s January top occurred at a previously important level, so did the S&P top (see circled area).  The next level of support is 1029, then 956.  Favor the downside.

The S&P 500 decline has started to pick up steam following a brief period of consolidation sending it below former congestion at 1,085. The move below leaves support at 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has broken below a support line drawn off of lows in July and November.  RSI divergence on the weekly plot at the January high is also bearish.  The next level of support is 2024.

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate and is now threatening rising trend line support near 2,147 which would leave  2,113-11/27 low as support. The tech laden index appears on course for an ultimate test of 2,024-11/2 low.

NASDAQ Threatens Trendline Support, Exposing Additional Losses

The pace of the Dow’s decline has slowed but it remains on track to test the significant psychological level of 10,000. A break below support would expose 9,679-11/2 low but that may follow a period of consolidation.

The S&P 500 decline has started to pick up steam following a brief period of consolidation sending it below former congestion at 1,085. The below leaves support at 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate and is now threatening rising trend line support near 2,147 which would leave  2,113-11/27 low as support. The tech laden index appears on course for an ultimate test of 2,024-11/2 low.

Dow Slide Looks To Continue As Support Remains In The Distance

The Dow has traded sideways / slightly up since the beginning of November.  Trading higher from the sideways consolidation favors additional upside with the next level of resistance being 10828.  Daily oscillator studies warn of a turn however (waning momentum since the summer).  Coming below the support line would be the earliest signal that the trend has reversed but a drop under 9679 is needed in order to break the series of higher lows.

The Dow has begun to consolidate its losses after breaking below trend line support. A test of 10,000 appears likely with a break below exposing 9,679-11/2 low.

The S&P is in a similar situation to the Dow in that the index has traded higher following a sideways consolidation.  A measured level at 1159 is potential resistance, which is followed by 1200 (former support).  The S&P has traded below its support line already – watch the underside of the line for resistance.  The line is at 1150 this week and increases 11 points a week (1161 next week).

The S&P 500 like the Dow has has begun to consolidate and is now coming up against former congestion at 1,085. A converging short-term trend line is reinforcing support and could lead to a retrace. A break below exposes 1,029-11/2 low.

The NASDAQ has been a beast, already rallying through its 61.8% retracement of the decline from 2862.  The next level of potential resistance is the 100% extension of 1266-1880 / 1727, at 2341.  Like the S&P, the NASDAQ is trading below its former steep support line.  This line is now probable resistance.  The line is at 2392 now and increases 26 points per week (a blow off perhaps?).

The NASDAQ has also seen its losses accelerate with a break below trend line support. Support could come at rising trend line support near 2,154 or at 2,113-11/27 low.

Next Page »