Fundamentals

Dividends Can Help Investors Navigate Volatile Markets Ahead

February 5, 2010 at 10:04 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

In light of January’s pullback in U.S. equities, following an uninterrupted nine-month rally, investors are looking to protect their portfolios from a potentially volatile 2010.  With the huge losses of 2008 still fresh in their minds, investors appear skittish about their investments going forward due to uncertainties in the business environment such as the tightening of easy central bank policies, the end of government stimulus, and increased government regulation.  In such a situation, a dividend yield based strategy can improve stability in a portfolio’s returns by smoothing out the influence of risk appetite, while still allowing the investor to chase capital gains.

In its simplest form, a dividend is the distribution of a company’s earnings to its shareholders, usually taking the form of a cash payment.  Although often forgotten or overlooked, the dividend is a key component of a security’s total return and can provide a more accurate picture of a stock’s true value than its market price.  Being a byproduct of fundamental data, the dividend is a true representation of a stock’s underlying strength and helps to filter out speculative interest and “noise” created by investor appetite.  As seen in the tech bubble of the late 1990’s, stock prices can stray far from underlying fundamentals, so using an indicator such as the dividend is key to  revealing a mispriced stock or index.

Since March 2009, stocks have greatly outpaced their underlying fundamentals if priced using the dividend discount model.  Although stocks soared over 50 percent off their March lows, dividends declined during the same period and have showed no momentum in the positive direction going forward.  Investors have recoiled from some of their equity holdings this year, as mixed earnings data and high unemployment have brought into question the economic environment for the near- to medium-term.  If dividends are any indicator, stocks appear primed for a pullback, as long as fundamentals remain weak and the economic environment uncertain.

The S&P 500 Against Its Dividends Paid, 2000-Present

DIV205

Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

U.S. Equities Rally Late On Eased Concerns Over Regulatory Reforms

March 11, 2010 at 7:19 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments

•    Government Officials Struggle to  Put Together Health Care, Financial Reforms
•    Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims Higher Than Expected
•    Commodities Post Slight Gains on Dollar Weakness

U.S. stocks rallied into market close today, as investor concerns were eased regarding health care reconciliation and financial regulatory reforms.  The late surge for equities helped push the S&P over the 1,150 level, the highest close for the index since 2008.  Initially, stocks traded lower on the open following a disappointing jobless claims report one hour before market open.  The Labor Department said that initial jobless claims fell to 462,000 last week versus 460,000 expected, and continuing claims unexpectedly rose over 4.55 million.  The news caused the S&P 500 index to dip under 1,139 off the open, before finding its footing and posting a strong rally into market close.  Financial shares led the ascent, as investors seemed more confident that financial regulation would struggle to pass and was unlikely to suffocate future bank profits as some feared the proposed “Volcker Rule” might have.  Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd announced that he will release his version of the regulation without bipartisan support, as talks with Republican Bob Corker have collapsed in recent days.  Following financial shares higher today was the health care sector, which gained nearly 0.5 percent on the S&P.  Investors speculate that health-care reform will be difficult to pass and that has taken some of the uncertainty out of the health care market, according to sector analysts.  Overall, investors continued to seek riskier assets, driving stocks and commodities higher on the session.  Crude oil closed above $82 a barrel, while gold and silver future contracts closed at $1108 and $17.16 respectively.  The U.S. Dollar Index fell for a third time in the last five trading days but held above the 80 level.

DJIA 30                     10,611.84                      +44.51                       +0.42%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the strongest performance among the major U.S. indices led by 1 percent gains for IBM, Disney, Travelers, and Home Depot.  Disney had posted strong gains this week thanks to a strong opening weekend for the company’s newest hit film, “Alice in Wonderland.”  Today, the entertainment giant announced an agreement that gives Starz Entertainment exclusive licensing for Disney movies through 2015.  Overall, the thirty Dow stocks have gained collectively in eight of the past ten trading days, and the index is inching closer to its 2010 high close of 10725 on January 19.

S&P 500                       1,150.24                           +4.63                       +0.40%
The broad-based S&P 500 traded to a 17-month high on strength in health care and financial shares.  Financial shares gained nearly 1 percent led by a strong 5.5 percent gain for Citigroup following bullish commentary from Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit.  Pandit said that the bank should be consistently profitable and he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the government decided to sell its 27 percent state in the firm.  Furthering gains for the S&P index was the health care sector, which added nearly half of one percent as Coventry Health, Aetna, and Davita added 3 percent each.

NASDAQ                     2,368.46                         +9.51                     +0.40%
Shares on the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained for a sixth day as technology were generally higher on the day.  Blackberry maker Research in Motion posted the strongest gain among the ten largest tech stocks on the index, adding 1.2 percent.  Oracle also had a strong day, gaining over 1 percent as CEO Larry Ellison was announced to be the sixth richest billionaire this year.

USW311

Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

U.S. Stocks Rise on One-Year Anniversary of Bear-Market Low

March 9, 2010 at 6:21 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments
Dollar Traders Provide Direction For General Market
Fitch Issues Warnings on UK and Portugal Budget Deficits
Commodities Moderately Lower on Higher Dollar
Exactly a year after US equity markets had their lowest close in over twelve years, stocks resumed last week’s gains after closing slightly lower yesterday.  The broad-based Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2 percent today and is now less than 10 points (0.9 percent) off of its January 19 high of 1150.23.  With no big economic releases this morning, investors looked towards the dollar for direction.  The dollar had been as much as 0.5 percent higher against its major trading partners around the time of the open causing stocks to open lower.  As the dollar pared gains, stocks recovered and were 0.6 percent up at the market’s peak.  Equities dipped below yesterday’s close one more time in the last hour of trading before settling just above that close.  Much of the dollar’s strength came from weakness in Sterling and the Euro.  The two currencies dropped 0.5 and 0.2 percent against the greenback respectively as Fitch issued warnings about both the U.K. and Portuguese budget deficits.  Meanwhile commodity currencies were mostly higher against the dollar despite the CRB Commodity Index dropping 0.7 percent.  Crude was down 0.6 percent to $81.81 per barrel while gold gave up 0.3 percent to $1122 per troy ounce.
DJIA 30 10,564.38 +11.86 +0.11%
A little over half of components gained today, led by advances in the telecom and Industrial spaces, which each gained over 0.9 percent.  Basic Materials stocks weighed on the market as no components in that sector gained and the sector lost 0.5 percent overall.
S&P 500                     1,140.45 +1.95 +0.17%
The broader S&P 500 saw gains from a wider group of sectors.  Telecom and Industrial stocks paced the S&P 500 as well, however Tech, Financial, and Energy stocks also gained.  Basic Materials stocks were the worst performers here as well as Commodities were generally lower.
NASDAQ                 2,340.68 +8.47 +0.36%
The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite was the best performer among the three main U.S. equity indices.  Basic Materials and Energy stocks were the only groups in the red and Tech stocks, which hold by far the most weight, were up 0.5 percent as a group.
Written by Gary Chalik, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to GChalik@fxcm.com

U.S. Session Key Developments

Dollar Traders Provide Direction For General Market

Fitch Issues Warnings on UK and Portugal Budget Deficits

Commodities Moderately Lower on Higher Dollar

Exactly a year after US equity markets had their lowest close in over twelve years, stocks resumed last week’s gains after closing slightly lower yesterday.  The broad-based Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 0.2 percent today and is now less than 10 points (0.9 percent) off of its January 19 high of 1150.23.  With no big economic releases this morning, investors looked towards the dollar for direction.  The dollar had been as much as 0.5 percent higher against its major trading partners around the time of the open causing stocks to open lower.  As the dollar pared gains, stocks recovered and were 0.6 percent up at the market’s peak.  Equities dipped below yesterday’s close one more time in the last hour of trading before settling just above that close.  Much of the dollar’s strength came from weakness in Sterling and the Euro.  The two currencies dropped 0.5 and 0.2 percent against the greenback respectively as Fitch issued warnings about both the U.K. and Portuguese budget deficits.  Meanwhile commodity currencies were mostly higher against the dollar despite the CRB Commodity Index dropping 0.7 percent.  Crude was down 0.6 percent to $81.81 per barrel while gold gave up 0.3 percent to $1122 per troy ounce.

DJIA 30 10,564.38 +11.86 +0.11%

A little over half of components gained today, led by advances in the telecom and Industrial spaces, which each gained over 0.9 percent.  Basic Materials stocks weighed on the market as no components in that sector gained and the sector lost 0.5 percent overall.

S&P 500                     1,140.45 +1.95 +0.17%

The broader S&P 500 saw gains from a wider group of sectors.  Telecom and Industrial stocks paced the S&P 500 as well, however Tech, Financial, and Energy stocks also gained.  Basic Materials stocks were the worst performers here as well as Commodities were generally lower.

NASDAQ 2,340.68 +8.47 +0.36%

The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite was the best performer among the three main U.S. equity indices.  Basic Materials and Energy stocks were the only groups in the red and Tech stocks, which hold by far the most weight, were up 0.5 percent as a group.

0309uswrapup

Written by Gary Chalik, CFDTrading Research

Please send any comments about this report to GChalik@fxcm.com

U.S. Equities Open Week With Mixed Results

March 8, 2010 at 7:50 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments

•    Dow Jones Industrial Average Returns to Positive Territory For 2010
•    Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expected, Home Sales Plunge
•    Commodities Decline as Greenback Gains Against European Counterparts

U.S. stocks were generally higher today following mixed trading in Europe’s session as well as the Asian session overnight.  The Nasdaq rose slightly on strength in technology shares, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 each closed lower on the day.  There was very little action on the trading day, however, as only 7.1 billion shares exchanged hands on U.S. indices- the second-lowest amount of the year.  On the other hand, the VIX volatility index rose for the first time in nine days as investors seem unsure of what lies ahead for the world’s stock markets.  As for commodities today, crude oil continued its rise, trading near $82 a barrel at session close.  Precious metals were on the decline, however, as gold fell to $1123 on the COMEX and silver fell towards the $17.20 level.  The U.S. Dollar Index held above the 80 level for a third consecutive day, gaining against the British Pound but falling against the euro.

DJIA 30                     10,552.52                      -13.68                       -0.13%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the weakest performance among major U.S. indices as 18 of the 30 Dow stocks closed lower on the day.  3M Co posted the biggest loss on the index, dropping 1.3 percent, while American Express and Bank of America fell over 1 percent each to lead financial shares lower.  On the positive side, McDonald’s shares gained over 2 percent as strong overseas growth led to a 4.8 percent increase in sales for the world’s largest fast-food chain.  Verizon shares also gained today, after the company announced plans to expand its next-generation wireless broadband beyond its initial test sites of Boston and Seattle.

S&P 500                       1,138.50                           -0.20                       -0.02%
The broad-based S&P 500 ended its six-day rally today  on weakness in industrials and health care.  Health care stocks fell 0.4 percent as U.S. President Barack Obama leads a final push to overhaul the medical industry in the United States.  Davita shares were the worst performing among the health care sector, falling over 2.4 percent, while shares of UnitedHealth and Coventry Health dropped at least 1.7 percent each.  Other shares with unusual moves today included AIG, which rallied over 3 percent after agreeing to sell its American Life Insurance Co. unit to MetLife.

NASDAQ                     2,332.21                         +5.86                     +0.25%
The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the best performer among major U.S. indices as technology stocks rose nearly 0.5 percent on the day.  Cisco shares rallied over 3 percent after JPMorgan initiated coverage of the stock and word that the technology firm would be making a major announcement tomorrow.  BlackBerry maker Research in Motion rose 4 percent after a BMO analyst upgraded his estimates and price target on the shares.  As for non-technology shares on the index, IMAX Corp. rallied over 8 percent following a successful weekend opening of Disney’s 3D film “Alice in Wonderland.”

Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

U.S. Stocks Rise on Better-Than-Expected Non-Farm Payrolls

March 5, 2010 at 7:49 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

U.S. Session Key Developments

  • Labor Department Reports Payrolls Dropped By 36,000 in February
  • Consumer Credit Unexpectedly Rises in January
  • Investors Sell Off US Dollar, Crude Gains 2 Percent
  • U.S. Equities are on track to test January highs after a better-than-expected non-farm payrolls report sent stocks higher.  The Labor Department reported that payrolls dropped by 36,000 in February, compared with a decrease of 68,000 estimated in a Bloomberg survey.  Economists had expected that the severe weather had kept job hunters at home and kept businesses from hiring.  The report showed that 1 million Americans said bad weather prevented them from getting to work during the survey week.  Nonetheless, the unemployment rate held at 9.7 percent in the face of all the snow, suggesting that March could see the first significant rise in payrolls.  On the other hand, the underemployment rate – which includes part-time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking – rose to 16.8 percent from 16.5 percent.  Gains in employment are pivotal to a sustainable economic recovery.  The greenback faltered despite the employment surprise due to its “safe-haven” status.  The dollar index finished the session at 80.44, 0.2 percent lower from yesterday’s close.  The dollar was lower against all G7 currencies except the Japanese Yen, which fell 1.4 percent to 90.29 against the dollar.  Commodities gained on the dollar’s weakness and the newfound confidence in the strength of the economic recovery.  The CRB Commodity Index was up 0.8 percent at the end of the session.  Crude oil provided major strength, gaining 2.0 percent to $82.09.

    DJIA 30                  10,566.20                    +122.06                       +1.17%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the first week of March back in the black for 2010 and on the verge of testing its January 19 high of 10725.  Overall, only two components of the index declined in today’s session as shares of Boeing and American Express paced all advancing issues.  Both companies advanced at least 3.4 percent and contributed a combined 28 points to the Dow’s advance.  Alcoa was the third best performer as metal prices gained 0.7 percent in today’s commodity rally.  Alcoa closed up 3.1 percent.

    S&P 500                     1,138.70                      +15.73                         +1.40%
    The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index gained for the sixth consecutive trading day.  All industry groups were in the black as 19 out of 20 components advanced overall.  All 82 Financial issues were higher today as the group gained 2.0 percent to lead all sectors.  Bank lending to consumers unexpectedly increased in January for the first time in a year.  Consumer credit rose by $5.0 billion compared to the $4.5 billion drop anticipated by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.  American International Group was the best performer among financial companies.  The bailed-out insurer rose 5.1 percent after it announced it would sell its remaining stake in Transatlantic Holdings, valued at close to $500 million.

    NASDAQ                   2,326.35                      +34.04                         +1.48%
    The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite was the best performer among the three main U.S. equity indices.  Basic materials stocks led all industry groups higher, gaining 2.65 percent amid major gains in commodity prices.  Technology shares, which hold the most weight by far, gained 1.3 percent.  Apple contributed the most to the sector’s advance.  The maker of iPods gained 3.9 percent to close at $218.99.  The company climbed to a record intraday price of $219.70 after they announced they would start selling the iPad in the U.S. on April 3 and will take preorders next week.

    0305wrapup

    Written by Gary Chalik, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to GChalik@fxcm.com

    U.S. Stocks Rally as Dow Returns to Positive Territory

    March 4, 2010 at 6:39 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    U.S. Session Key Developments

    •    Dow Jones Industrial Average Returns to Positive Territory For 2010
    •    Jobless Claims Slightly Better Than Expected, Home Sales Plunge
    •    Commodities Decline as Greenback Gains Against European Counterparts

    U.S. stocks were generally higher for a fifth consecutive day as initial jobless claims and continuing claims were shown to be slightly lower than expected in their most recent readings.  Investors managed to shake off a 7.2 percent plunge in January home sales and pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average back into positive territory for the 2010 year.  The employment data released by the Labor Department this morning showed that initial jobless claims fell by 29,000 to 469,000 in the week ended February 27, while continuing claims decreased to 4.5 million in the week ended February 20.  This data, coupled with a 6.9 percent improvement in nonfarm productivity in the fourth quarter, helped boost market sentiment and extend the winning streak for equities.  Commodities, on the other hand, did not fair as well due to weakness in Asia overnight and a rising U.S. dollar.  Crude oil fell nearly 1 percent today and fell below $80 a barrel intraday before closing at $80.21.  Precious metals were also weak, as gold prices fell to $1131 and silver futures fell towards the $17 level.  Silver has had a strong run as of late, gaining over 17 percent in the last month.  The U.S. Dollar Index posted its second gain of the week today, returning to the 80.5 level.  The greenback snapped its two-day losing streak against the euro, as the EURUSD fell to $1.3581 at the time of this writing.  Overall, there was very little price action after the initial morning gains as investors looked ahead to the nonfarm payrolls release tomorrow.  Economists expect the report to show that payrolls fell by 68,000 in February after declining 20,000 in the month prior.

    DJIA 30                     10,444.14                      +47.38                       +0.46%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained back yesterday’s slight loss and some, rallying nearly 50 points on strong performances for financials and basic materials shares.  Disney was the top performer on the index, adding nearly 3 percent after analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised their rating on the stock to “buy” from “neutral.”  Shares in Bank of America rallied 1.7 percent after the U.S. Treasury sold its warrants on the company’s shares for $1.57 billion.  Other strong performers included Coca-Cola and Boeing, which each gained over 1 percent on upgrades from analysts at UBS.  Overall, shares on the index have rallied over 6 percent in the last month and have returned to the black for 2010 to date.

    S&P 500                       1,122.97                           +4.18                       +0.37%
    The broad-based S&P 500 rallied for a fifth day as consumer services and financials gained nearly 1 percent each.  Financials were generally higher on news of the U.S. Treasury’s sale of BofA warrants, as well as easing concern over the Volcker Rule’s potential impact on bank profits.  Goldman Sachs had a strong day, posting a 3.7 percent gain on high volume trading.  Consumer services shares were led by gains in Abercrombie & Fitch, Zumiez, and Aeropostale as year-over-year comparisons showed improvements in the retail sector.  The worst performing sector on the S&P today was energy due to falling oil prices.

    NASDAQ                     2,292.31                         +11.63                     +0.51%
    The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the best performer among major U.S. indices as technology stocks rose nearly 0.6 percent on the day.  Of the largest-weighted fifteen tech stocks on the index, search engine giants Yahoo!, Google, and Baidu posted the strongest gains, each adding over 1 percent.  Research in Motion was the worst performer among the largest Nasdaq tech stocks, dropping 1.2 percent.

    USW304

    Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

    U.S. Stocks Unchanged on Mixed Economic Data

    March 3, 2010 at 6:36 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    U.S. Session Key Developments

  • Services Sector Expands More Than Anticipated
  • Beige Book Survey Reports Loan Demand Remains Weak
  • Dollar Falls, Commodities Rise
  • The S&P 500 Index managed to squeeze out a fourth consecutive higher close despite all three major US benchmark equity indices ending the session essentially unchanged.  Stocks were higher at the open following positive data on jobs and service industries.  According to ADP Employer Services, U.S. Companies cut 20,000 jobs last month and private employment may grow in March.  The Challenger job cuts survey also showed that planned firings fell 77 percent in February.  Furthermore, the Institute for Supply Management reported that the service industry expanded more than anticipated by Economists.  The ISM Non-manufacturing composite index rose from 50.5 to 53, beating the median estimate of 51 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

    Stocks erased the earlier gains following the Federal Reserve’s release of the Beige Book business survey at 2 PM EST.  The survey reported that the U.S. economy improved in nine of the twelve Federal Reserve regions for the first two months of the year.  Unfortunately, in most cases the increases were muted and the Federal Reserve reported that commercial real estate and loan demand remained weak and the government moved closer to limiting banks’ trading.  Other markets were more directional than equities; the greenback was lower throughout the day and the dollar index ended the session 0.7 percent lower.  Commodities were higher today with the CRB Commodity index increasing by 0.9 percent.  Oil provided major strength as May 2010 crude contracts gained 1.6 percent despite the US Department of Energy reporting that crude inventories rose by over 4 million barrels in the week ending February 26th.

    DJIA 30                      10,396.76                    -9.22                            -0.09%
    Three out of five stocks declined in today’s session to lead the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its first lower close in four trading days.  Pfizer led declines with a 1.6 percent drop after the company reported negative results for a late-stage trial of an Alzheimer’s disease drug.  Coca-Cola was the best performer of all Dow issues.  Share rose 1.2 percent as investors continue to digest Cola’s plans to acquire its biggest North American bottling operation.

    S&P 500                     1,118.79                      +0.48                           +0.04%
    The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index closed higher for the fourth consecutive trading day as almost half the issues advanced.  Bank stocks were 0.06 percent lower, giving up earlier gains after the Federal Reserve reported that the government had moved closer to limiting banks’ trading.  Basic Material stocks gained 0.9 percent, the best performance by any sector, as commodity prices gained 0.9 percent.

    NASDAQ                   2,280.68                      -0.11                            -0.00%
    The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite was moderately lower, dragged down by consumer service stocks as well as financials.  Tech stocks gained 0.1 percent, led by Qualcomm, which contributed the most to the sector’s advance.  Shares in the company gained 2.0 percent after the company announced plans to raise its quarterly dividend as well as a stock buyback plan.  Shares of Novell were the top performers on the Nasdaq, climbing 28 percent after a hedge fund offered to buy the business-software maker.

    wrapup

    Written by Gary Chalik, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to GChalik@fxcm.com

    European Stocks Rise on Announcement of New Greek Budget Cuts

    March 2, 2010 at 6:11 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    Europe Session Key Developments

    •    Greece Will Announce as Much as 4.8 Billion Euros of Cuts to Europe’s Biggest Deficit Tomorrow
    •    Sterling Continues to Slide Ahead of BoE Interest Rate Decision on Thursday
    •    Commodities are Generally Higher Amid Dollar Weakness and Economic Optimism

    European stocks rose for a third day as Greek spokesman Giorgos Petalotis said the government will announce additional measures to reduce Europe’s biggest deficit tomorrow.  Greece will announce as much as 4.8 billion euros ($6.5 billion) of cuts, bowing to pressure from the European Union and investors.  The new measures will include higher tobacco, alcohol and sales taxes and deeper cuts in public workers’ bonus payments according to an unnamed source.  The yield on the benchmark 2-year Greek bond tumbled 19 basis points today to 5.52 percent as speculation grew that the EU will bail out Greece after the new budget cuts.  Speculation that an end to Greece’s debt crisis might be near also pushed the Stoxx Europe 600 Index 0.8 percent higher to 250.65, its highest close in a month.

    On the currency front, the single currency gained today while cable continued its slide.  Midday, the euro was 0.3 percent stronger against the dollar to 1.3605 while sterling had depreciated 0.3 percent to 1.4956.  In general, the dollar index was 0.2 percent weaker.  Commodities have also gained as a group; the CRB Commodity index was 0.9 percent higher.  Precious metals and Energy provided major strength; the two groups rose 2.0 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.  Ahead for tomorrow, the Nationwide Building Society will report British Consumer Confidence and the Deutsche Bundesbank will report German Retail Sales.  The two events will provide some risk but not quite as much as both the BoE and ECB interest rate decisions on Thursday.  Though interest rate swaps are pricing in no probability of either of these banks raising rates by even 25 basis points, traders will be looking closely at the language for any signs of an increase in the scope of quantitative easing programs, particularly in the case of the BoE.

    FTSE 100                         5484.06                     +78.12                     +1.45%
    The FTSE 100 Index was the best performer among benchmark equity indices of Europe’s five biggest economies.  Insurance stocks were the only sector in the red while gains were led by British Airways and ICAP.  British Airways stock was up 6.2 percent as airlines across Europe gained following a lower than expected loss posted by Lufthansa, Europe’s second-biggest airline.  ICAP rose 4.6 percent after coverage of the stock was initiated at UBS with a “buy” rating.

    CAC 40                            3811.92                     +42.38                     +1.12%
    French stocks advanced for the third straight day, led by gains in PSA Peugeot Citroen and L’Oreal.  Peugeot, Europe’s second-largest carmaker, surged 3.4 percent after it said the year has started “better than expectations.”  The carmaker also put plans to expand in India on hold pending the outcome of talks with Mitsubishi Motors.  The pair have been exploring the possibility of Peugeot taking a stake in Mitsubishi, which is already present in India.  L’Oreal also rose on merger speculation as there has been renewed buzz about a possible bid for the company by Nestle.  L’Oreal stock was up 2.7 percent to 79.67 euros.

    DAX                                 5776.56                       +63.05                    +1.10%
    German stocks were led higher by automakers and airlines today as only two of the thirty issues on the DAX finished the session in the red.  Lufthansa and Bayerische Motoren Werke were among the highest gainers on the DAX benchmark index.  BMW, the world’s biggest maker of luxury cars, rose 2.9 percent to 31.34 euros after the CEO of the company said the company will focus on reaching a 1.3 million-vehicle sales goal this year.  Lufthansa rose 3.6 percent after the airline reported that it had achieved a positive operating income in 2009.

    IBEX 35                          10521.50                     +86.60                   +0.83%
    Retail, Media, and Insurance stocks were the only industry groups to decline today as Spanish stocks rose for a third straight day.  Commodity producers led the advance as commodities gained 0.9 percent in today’s session.  Basic Material stocks were up 2.5 percent as a group and Energy stocks were up 1.1 percent.  The biggest individual mover was Iberia Airlines, which gained 5.7 percent to follow other European airlines higher.  Another major mover was Repsol, Spain’s largest oil company, which increased 1.2 percent and contributed 7 index points to today’s advance.  In addition to higher oil prices, the company was raised to “hold” by ING.

    FTSE MIB                     21431.41                       +110.61                   +0.52%
    Italy’s FTSE MIB was the weakest advancer of benchmark indices of Europe’s five biggest economies.  Fiat SpA climbed 3.9 percent to 8.25 euros as automakers across Europe saw their shares get a lift today.  The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index rose as much as 2.5 percent today, the best performance among 19 industry groups in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index.  Italian car registrations rose 21 percent last month from a year earlier while sales of Fiat’s three main brands rose 17 percent.

    0302wrapup

    Written by Gary Chalik, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to GChalik@fxcm.com

    U.S. Equities Gain For Third Consecutive Session

    March 2, 2010 at 5:45 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    U.S. Session Key Developments

    •    Sovereign Debt Concerns Ease as Greece Prepares For More Deficit Cuts
    •    February Vehicle Sales Announced After Market Close, Fall Short of Expectations
    •    Commodities Trade Higher as Greenback Generally Weaker

    U.S. stocks gained for a third consecutive day, following a strong session in Europe, as investor concerns regarding a Greece debt default continued to ease.  The broad-based S&P 500 rose 2 points to 1118, the highest close for the index since January 20.  The gains in U.S. stocks were a continuation of the European session today, in which the FTSE, CAC, and DAX each gained over 1 percent.  Sovereign debt concerns in the region eased for a second day, as yields on 10-year Greek bonds fell 10 basis points to 6.14 percent.  Leaders of the Greek government plan to announce additional cuts of $6.5 billion tomorrow to help reign in the country’s massive debt-to-GDP ratio that currently sits at three times the acceptable European Union level.  The news fueled speculation that other EU nations would provide aid to Greece and boosted risk appetite across the globe.  The positive momentum wore off by the end of the U.S. session, however, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped into the red during the last hour of trading before closing slightly above even.  There was no economic data today to drive market sentiment as the only data release took place an hour after U.S. markets closed.  The data showed that domestic vehicle sales were slightly lower than expected in February and that ABC consumer confidence ticked slightly higher last week.

    On the commodities front, crude oil had a strong showing and rallied over 1 percent to $79.68 a barrel.  Precious metals had an even better day as gold futures posted their largest gain in two weeks to $1137 and silver futures rose 3 percent to $17.06.  Rising metal prices coincided with a relatively weak dollar, as the U.S. Dollar Index fell for the fourth time in five days.  The greenback still managed to gain against the British Pound, however, driving cable lower for a sixth consecutive session.  Looking ahead, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite report and ADP employment report will be released tomorrow morning, while the Fed will release its Beige Book in the latter half of the trading day.

    DJIA 30                     10,405.98                      +2.19                       +0.02%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly higher today, led by a near half-percent gain for industrials and oil & gas stocks.  Chevron led commodity stocks with a 0.7 percent gain due to rising oil prices, while Boeing and 3M gained 0.6 percent each to lead industrials.  Disney was the best overall performer on the Dow today, adding over 1 percent as fans await the opening of Alice in Wonderland in theaters on March 5.  The main laggards of the index today were Microsoft and Bank of America, which dropped 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.  The U.S. Treasury announced yesterday its intentions to auction off $272 million warrants to buy stock in BofA.

    S&P 500                       1,118.31                        +2.60                         +0.23%
    The broad-based S&P 500 rose to its highest level since January as rising commodity prices helped boost basic materials and energy shares.  Massey Energy led basic materials shares with a 4 percent gain, followed by Consol Energy and Newmont Mining which added nearly 3 percent each.  The coal sector posted strong gains today amid speculation that Massey will acquire Patriot Coal Corp., the fourth-largest U.S. coal producer.  Tesoro Corp. posted a 5 percent gain to lead a strong showing for energy stocks.  Financial shares added to the bullish momentum after bank analyst Dick Bove said that bank earnings over the next few years “will soar.”

    NASDAQ                     2,280.79                       +7.22                       +0.32%
    The tech-heavy Nasdaq was the best performer among major U.S. indices although technology stocks posted a minimal gain.  Qualcomm led the heaviest-weighted fifteen tech stocks on the index, gaining 6.6 percent after the chip maker boosted its dividend by 12 percent and announced a $3 billion stock buyback program.  Internet search giant Google rose over 1.5 percent on news that the company agreed to purchase online photography site Picnik.

    USW302

    Written by James Russell, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to JRussell@fxcm.com

    US Stocks Climb on Positive US Data

    March 1, 2010 at 8:07 pm by CFDTrading Analyst · Leave a Comment 

    U.S. Session Key Developments

  • Personal Spending Rises More Than Anticipated in January
  • US Manufacturing Expands For Seventh Straight Month
  • Commodities Drop On Dollar Strength
  • US Equities rallied today after personal spending rose by 0.5 percent in January.  The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a smaller increase of just 0.4 percent.  This was the fourth straight gain for consumer spending, a figure that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.  Today’s reading is a sign that Americans are regaining confidence in job and income prospects, which is translating into an expansion of spending.  Income also rose in January, though less than anticipated.  A separate report, released by the Institute for Supply Management, showed that manufacturing expanded for the seventh straight month in February.  The index fell to 56.5 from January’s 58.4, which was a five-year high.  Economists had been anticipating a slightly smaller drop to 57.9.

    The greenback was stronger after the positive U.S. data.  The dollar index, which measures the currency’s performance against the currencies of its closest trading partners, gained 0.4 percent.  The British Pound was the worst performer of G7 currencies as political uncertainty and the massive UK budget deficit fuelled frantic selling of the currency.  The pound was 1.6 percent lower against the dollar and has breached 1.50 for the first time in 10 months.  Commodities declined on dollar strength with the CRB Commodity Index giving up 0.8 percent today.  Crude was a primary source of weakness as contracts for April delivery dropped 1.2 percent to $78.70.  Natural Gas contracts also came under pressure and dropped 2.8 percent in today’s session.  Precious metals traded only fractionally lower.  Looking ahead, this week features several Central Banks reporting interest rate decisions as well as the infamous US non-farm payrolls figure.  The abundance of macroeconomic event risk should provide for a lot of price action and volatility expectations have picked up accordingly.

    DJIA 30                    10,403.79                +78.53                         +0.76%
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average started the new month in positive territory led by International Business Machines, which contributed the most to the index’s advance.  Shares of IBM rose 1.1 percent to $128.57.  A group that represents IBM employees announced that IBM cut 500 US jobs today.  The group also said that job cuts at IBM this year will be far fewer than the 10,000 reported last year.  IBM has already accumulated over one billion dollars in workforce reduction expenses over 2008 and 2009.

    S&P 500                     1,115.71                      +11.22                          +1.02%
    The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index closed above its 2009 closing level for the first time since January 21st today.  Overall, 9 out of 10 issues advanced on the broad-based index and bank stocks were the only industry group to decline.  Banks dropped 0.2 percent as a group after HSBC reported weaker than expected 2009 full-year results.  Basic Materials stocks shrugged off a stronger dollar and led all other sectors higher.  All 26 issues were in the green today as the group gained 1.8 percent.

    NASDAQ                   2,273.57                   +35.31                         +1.58%
    The tech heavy Nasdaq Composite was the best performer of the three major US indices.  Tech stocks gained 1.5 percent as a group.  Apple contributed the most to the sector’s advance as the company’s shares gained 2.6 percent.  Deutsche Bank added the company to its short-term buy list, citing strong order momentum for the iPhone.

    wrapup

    Written by Gary Chalik, CFDTrading Research
    Please send any comments about this report to GChalik@fxcm.com

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