Technicals
FTSE Near-Term Positioning Favors The Downside
February 2, 2010 at 3:41 pm by Jamie Saettele · Leave a Comment
The FTSE is testing channel support and a break below would strongly suggest that the advance from the 2009 low is complete. The rally is in 5 waves and is therefore probably just the first wave of a larger correction (b wave underway now). Initial support is 4955.
FTSE near-term positioning favors the downside as prices trend lower in a falling channel. Near-term resistance is seen at 5511.66, the channel top, while support is found in the 5440.22-5455.37 congestion region. A below this barrier exposes 5390.58.
The DAX is in the same position as the FTSE. The index is testing channel support now and dropping below would suggest that the rally from the 2009 low is complete as an A wave. Initial support is 5159.
German shares have trended lower since breaking below rising trend line support, with price action guided by a well-defined falling channel. Prices have come off the bottom of the formation to re-test support-turned-resistance at 59350. Renewed bearish momentum from here will target another test of the channel’s lower boundary, this time at 58452.
The CAC 40 has dropped below trendline support and a large B wave may be underway now towards 3398. Favor the downside against the January high.
As with its German counterpart, the CAC has broken below rising trend line support and is being guided lower by a falling channel. A bounce from the channel bottom has stalled below support-turned-resistance at 3979.15, with renewed selling to target 3933.91.
After reversing in January, the IBEX has declined in impulsive fashion. Additionally, RSI divergence on the weekly suggests that the top is important. Favor the downside. The next support is 993.
Madrid issues are positioned broadly in line with the DAX and CAC: prices have taken out rising trend line support and are trending lower bounded by a falling channel. Near-term support has been found at 1185.46, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with an upswing to aim for the 38.2% Fib at 1194.56. Alternatively, a break lower exposes the 61.8% Fib at 1176.35.
The FTSE/MIB reversed from the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high and has fallen beneath channel support. The drop below channel support indicates that the path of least resistance is lower. The next level of support is 20702.
Italy’s benchmark index seems to be stalling behind its counterparts in Germany, France and Spain. Indeed, while those indexes have broken lower, the FTSE/MIB continues to test rising trend lie support, with the hurdle reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Nonetheless, cues from other major exchanges suggest the path of least resistance leads lower, with the next level of relevant support on a breakdown past current levels found at the 38.2% Fib (23040.84).
European Stock Exchanges Position to Resume Decline
January 19, 2010 at 3:00 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE continues to work higher and has surpassed its 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high. The next level of potential resistance is the August 2008 high at 5649. A Fibonacci extension at 5811 would be the following objective. There is channel resistance at 5742 this week (increases 35 points per week).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
FTSE near-term positioning favors the downside as prices trend lower in a falling channel. Near-term resistance is seen at 5511.66, the channel top, while support is found in the 5440.22-5455.37 congestion region. A below this barrier exposes 5390.58.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
Having held trendline support throughout the fall and winter, the DAX is nearing potential resistance from an extension (100%) at 6113. That level is where there are 2 equal legs higher from the March low. The 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high is also potential resistance. This level is reinforced by the surrounding congestion zone.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have trended lower since breaking below rising trend line support, with price action guided by a well-defined falling channel. Prices have come off the bottom of the formation to re-test support-turned-resistance at 59350. Renewed bearish momentum from here will target another test of the channel’s lower boundary, this time at 58452.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 is testing a resistance line (drawn off of highs in 2007) this week. Exceeding this line would shift focus to the 50% retracement at 4317. The rally from the March low is in 5 waves (not labeled) and is therefore the first wave in a larger multiyear correction.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
As with its German counterpart, the CAC has broken below rising trend line support and is being guided lower by a falling channel. A bounce from the channel bottom has stalled below support-turned-resistance at 3979.15, with renewed selling to target 3933.91.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
The IBEX looks most like the US indexes (especially the S&P) in that the index has broken higher from months of sideways trading. This in itself is bullish but there is potentially strong resistance at 1247. This is both the 61.8% of the decline from the 2007 high and the 100% extension of the first leg of the rally from the March low. Watch the underside of the former support line for resistance. The line is at 1278 this week and increases 14 points per week.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Madrid issues are positioned broadly in line with the DAX and CAC: prices have taken out rising trend line support and are trending lower bounded by a falling channel. Near-term support has been found at 1185.46, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with an upswing to aim for the 38.2% Fib at 1194.56. Alternatively, a break lower exposes the 61.8% Fib at 1176.35.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
In October, the FTSE/MIB reversed from the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high and subsequently fell beneath trendline support. The high has held but the decline is not impulsive. A move through 24568 would expose former support at 26464. Watch the underside of the former support line for resistance. The line is at 24979 this week and increases 294 points per week.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italy’s benchmark index seems to be stalling behind its counterparts in Germany, France and Spain. Indeed, while those indexes have broken lower, the FTSE/MIB continues to test rising trend lie support, with the hurdle reinforced by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Nonetheless, cues from other major exchanges suggest the path of least resistance leads lower, with the next level of relevant support on a breakdown past current levels found at the 38.2% Fib (23040.84).
European Stock Exchanges Position To Correct Lower
January 11, 2010 at 4:16 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE continues to work higher and has surpassed its 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high. The next level of potential resistance is the August 2008 high at 5649. A Fibonacci extension at 5811 would be the following objective. There is channel resistance at 5742 this week (increases 35 points per week).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has stalled ahead of the 5550.00 level with prices now edging below support at the bottom of a rising channel in place since late December. A move below initial support at 5507.24 exposes 5445.17.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
Having held trendline support throughout the fall and winter, the DAX is nearing potential resistance from an extension (100%) at 6113. That level is where there are 2 equal legs higher from the March low. The 61.8% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high is also potential resistance. This level is reinforced by the surrounding congestion zone.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
GA minor rising channel has emerged after prices broke out of a larger bullish channel formation, with prices now testing support at 60661. A rebound lower sees support at 59741, while a breakout will expose the 61000 level.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 is testing a resistance line (drawn off of highs in 2007) this week. Exceeding this line would shift focus to the 50% retracement at 4317. The rally from the March low is in 5 waves (not labeled) and is therefore the first wave in a larger multiyear correction.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The CAC is showing a Rising Wedge formation with negative RSI divergence, hinting that a bearish reversal is ahead. A break below the wedge bottom (now at 4026.82) exposes support at 3990.56, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent upswing.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
The IBEX looks most like the US indexes (especially the S&P) in that the index has broken higher from months of sideways trading. This in itself is bullish but there is potentially strong resistance at 1247. This is both the 61.8% of the decline from the 2007 high and the 100% extension of the first leg of the rally from the March low. Watch the underside of the former support line for resistance. The line is at 1278 this week and increases 14 points per week.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Overall positioning shows Spanish shares are forming a Rising Wedge bearish reversal formation. Near-term resistance is seen at 1229.90, the wedge top, while support lines up in the 1203.22 – 1210.26 congestion region.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
In October, the FTSE/MIB reversed from the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the 2007 high and subsequently fell beneath trendline support. The high has held but the decline is not impulsive. A move through 24568 would expose former support at 26464. Watch the underside of the former support line for resistance. The line is at 24979 this week and increases 294 points per week.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italy’s FTSE/MIB index is showing a Hanging Man candlestick ahead of the 24000.00 level, hinting that a corrective decline may be ahead. Initial support is seen at 23559.53, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upswing.
Most European Stocks Pause to Consolidate, DAX Breaks Lower
January 4, 2010 at 1:42 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE remains constructive until a drop below 4955. Potential channel resistance is not until 5483 today. The structure of the rally is bearish, taking the form of a correction (3 waves). What’s more, wave c is equal to wave a in percentage terms.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has broken above falling trend line resistance but the bulls have met some push-back ahead of the 5450.00 level. Initial support is seen at 5386.55, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, while the latest swing high at 5445.17 marks near-term resistance.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
The DAX has found support from a support line extended from the March and July lows. A short term former support line may act as resistance at the current level. A continuation of the bear trend would be signaled on a drop below 5313. In the event of a new high, the 6000-6110 zone is resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares broken below rising trend line support set from December’s swing low. Initial support is seen at 59387, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 reached its 100% extension at 3892 and reversed sharply, eventually falling beneath the October low. A larger turn would be signaled on a drop below 3550. Trading above the October high would shift focus to 4000 and then channel resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The French benchmark index has overcome triple top resistance near 3868.16 and prices have now taken a breather to consolidate below the swing high at 3976.92. Near-term support is seen at 3933.85, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
TThe IBEX reversed at January 2008 low of 1194. Also, the index broke beneath the October low (red line) and trendline support. The rally from 1118 raises the possibility that the break was false however. Trading to a new high would expose a measured level at 1247. Under 1118 signals that the larger decline has resumed.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares were rejected lower from resistance at the intersection of the 1203.22-1210.26 congestion area and the upper boundary of a rising channel that has guided trading for most of December. Initial support has been found at the channel’s mid-line, now at 1193.63.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB broke beneath its support line for several days as well as its 50 day SMA. The moving average may be resistance now. The rally from March is in 3 waves and the recent reversal occurred following what appears to be completion of an ending diagonal. This is bearish evidence so I am looking for the decline to continue.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italy’s FTSE/MIB index looks somewhat similar to its UK counterpart: prices have taken out falling trend line resistance but the rally has paused ahead of the 23500.00 level. Initial support is seen at 23217.16, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
European Stocks Rebound But Resistance Looms Ahead
December 1, 2009 at 11:04 pm by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE remains constructive until a drop below 4955. Potential channel resistance is not until 5483 today. The structure of the rally is bearish, taking the form of a correction (3 waves). What’s more, wave c is equal to wave a in percentage terms.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has rebounded above support-turned-resistance at 5299.57, with prices now on pace to test downward-sloping trend line resistance at 5352.57. A push above that will open the door for a move to November’s high near 5400.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
The DAX has found support from a support line extended from the March and July lows. A short term former support line may act as resistance at the current level. A continuation of the bear trend would be signaled on a drop below 5313. In the event of a new high, the 6000-6110 zone is resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
German shares have rallied through resistance in the Fibonacci zone, with prices now on pace to challenge the 58000 handle. A push beyond that will clear the way for a test of double top resistance at 58360.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 reached its 100% extension at 3892 and reversed sharply, eventually falling beneath the October low. A larger turn would be signaled on a drop below 3550. Trading above the October high would shift focus to 4000 and then channel resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Paris issues have pushed above resistance at 3769.85, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. From here, prices are set to test falling trend line resistance at 3785.64, with a break above that opening the door for a move to November’s high at 3868.16.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
TThe IBEX reversed at January 2008 low of 1194. Also, the index broke beneath the October low (red line) and trendline support. The rally from 1118 raises the possibility that the break was false however. Trading to a new high would expose a measured level at 1247. Under 1118 signals that the larger decline has resumed.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares have pushed higher since gapping lower at the beginning of the trading week, with prices consolidating between the 50% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels (1164.12 and 1188.48, respectively). A break higher sees near-term resistance at falling trend line resistance set from November’s swing top (1196.51), while a move lower will target 1140.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB broke beneath its support line for several days as well as its 50 day SMA. The moving average may be resistance now. The rally from March is in 3 waves and the recent reversal occurred following what appears to be completion of an ending diagonal. This is bearish evidence so I am looking for the decline to continue.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Italy’s benchmark index has moved above resistance at the 20-period moving average and is now testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 22551.20. A break higher will target 22556.05.
European Stocks Consolidate, Bias Remains Bearish
November 25, 2009 at 5:13 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE remains constructive until a drop below 4955. Potential channel resistance is not until 5483 today. The structure of the rally is bearish, taking the form of a correction (3 waves). What’s more, wave c is equal to wave a in percentage terms.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE continues to consolidate near familiar levels with near-term support seen at 5299.75, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A break below that eyes the 38.2% Fib at 5239.62.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
The DAX has found support from a support line extended from the March and July lows. A short term former support line may act as resistance at the current level. A continuation of the bear trend would be signaled on a drop below 5313. In the event of a new high, the 6000-6110 zone is resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
As with UK shares, the DAX continues to trade sideways below 58475 with near term support at 57220, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The bias has looked bearish since prices broke lower out of a rising channel established from the monthly low at 53160.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 reached its 100% extension at 3892 and reversed sharply, eventually falling beneath the October low. A larger turn would be signaled on a drop below 3550. Trading above the October high would shift focus to 4000 and then channel resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
French issues are testing resistance at 3858.36, the top of a rising channel that has guided prices since the beginning of the month. Initial support is seen at 3805.09, a horizontal resistance-turned-support level.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
TThe IBEX reversed at January 2008 low of 1194. Also, the index broke beneath the October low (red line) and trendline support. The rally from 1118 raises the possibility that the break was false however. Trading to a new high would expose a measured level at 1247. Under 1118 signals that the larger decline has resumed.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares remain caught up in the lower part of a rising channel set form the monthly low, with initial resistance seen at 1204.30, the channel’s mid-line. Clear negative divergence on the RSI oscillator carries a bearish bias, hinting that traders may see a test of channel support at 1180.35.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB broke beneath its support line for several days as well as its 50 day SMA. The moving average may be resistance now. The rally from March is in 3 waves and the recent reversal occurred following what appears to be completion of an ending diagonal. This is bearish evidence so I am looking for the decline to continue.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB has remained under pressure since breaking out of a rising channel set from the monthly swing low. A shallow rebound is being contained by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 22979.57, with near term support at 22754.46 (the 50% Fib).
European Stocks Rebound, Meet Key Resistance
November 11, 2009 at 9:03 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE remains constructive until a drop below 4955. Potential channel resistance is not until 5483 today. The structure of the rally is bearish, taking the form of a correction (3 waves). What’s more, wave c is equal to wave a in percentage terms.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has risen to re-test resistance at 5298.54 for a potential double top. The hurdle to further bullish momentum is reinforced by support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line established from the low in August. A reversal will see near-term support at 5184.48.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
The DAX has found support from a support line extended from the March and July lows. A short term former support line may act as resistance at the current level. A continuation of the bear trend would be signaled on a drop below 5313. In the event of a new high, the 6000-6110 zone is resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The German benchmark index has pushed above resistance at 56749, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. From here, prices will aim to test support-turned-resistance at 57365, a level that has proved to be a significant inflection point at least since September.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
The CAC 40 reached its 100% extension at 3892 and reversed sharply, eventually falling beneath the October low. A larger turn would be signaled on a drop below 3550. Trading above the October high would shift focus to 4000 and then channel resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
French issues have pushed higher in a well-defined rising channel to surpass resistance at 3805.09 to find themselves squarely at the channel top. A correction lower now sees 3805.09 as support, while an acceleration of bullish momentum would aim for 3906.49.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
TThe IBEX reversed at January 2008 low of 1194. Also, the index broke beneath the October low (red line) and trendline support. The rally from 1118 raises the possibility that the break was false however. Trading to a new high would expose a measured level at 1247. Under 1118 signals that the larger decline has resumed.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares have advanced to re-test support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel that had previously contained prices since the lows in August. Continued bullish momentum will aim to test the double top at 1194.57, with near-term support at the 23.6% Fib mark (1172.38).
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB broke beneath its support line for several days as well as its 50 day SMA. The moving average may be resistance now. The rally from March is in 3 waves and the recent reversal occurred following what appears to be completion of an ending diagonal. This is bearish evidence so I am looking for the decline to continue.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB has surpassed resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (23179.51) and now aims to challenge the 61.8% Fib at 23504.94. A break beyond that will look for a re-test of support-turned-resistance at 25502.02, the bottom of a rising channel that had guided prices since September.
European Stocks Find Support, Look to Retest Swing Highs
October 14, 2009 at 3:34 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100 Pivot Table
DAX 30 Pivot Table
CAC 40 Pivot Table
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has reached the 100% extension of the 3461-4521 rally (5156). Parallel channel resistance at this level reinforces this level and increases the risk of a top and reversal. 5339 would be the next level of potential resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE continues to re-test 5231.19, a level initially marked by the bottom of a rising channel that had contained prices since August. A turn lower from here sees initial support at 5084.66, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
The DAX has yet to reach its measured resistance point of 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs from the March low would be equal. Potential resistance prior to that point is 5870 (50% of decline from 8152). The mentioned 6113 is reinforced by 6168 (former support line in gray).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The German benchmark index continues to look for direction between the latest swing top at 58185 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 57296. A break lower will see support at 56752, the 38.2% Fib.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
Similar to the DAX, the CAC 40 has yet to reach its measured resistance point of 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs from the March low would be equal. However, price is close and potential parallel channel resistance reiforces the current area as one that may provide the supply required to produce a reversal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
French issues have turned lower following a re-test of support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line that had guided shares higher since mid-August. A reversal lower from current levels eyes the 23.6% Fib at 3749.57.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
The IBEX has reached the January 2008 low. Former support is now resistance. RSI divergence warns of a trend change as well. Watch the trendline and top channel line as potential end points for the rally in the event that the advance continues. 1247 (100% extension) is also a level to expect a reversal if reached.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares continue to consolidate between 1193.82, the previous swing high, and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1160.77. A series of lower highs hints at a bearish bias, with a break below immediate support eyeing the 38.2% Fib at 1140.32.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB index encounters resistance from channel midline. Additional levels to watch are 24916 to 26464. The 100% extension of the 12332-20702 rally is near the top of this range.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB has rebounded from initial support at 23842.96, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, looking to take out the previous swing high at 24256.28. This will open the door for a move to challenge 24507.21, the top of a rising channel that has guided trading since early September.
European Stocks Retrace, Preapare to Renew Bearish Momentum
October 13, 2009 at 4:11 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100 Pivot Table
DAX 30 Pivot Table
CAC 40 Pivot Table
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has reached the 100% extension of the 3461-4521 rally (5156). Parallel channel resistance at this level reinforces this level and increases the risk of a top and reversal. 5339 would be the next level of potential resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has retraced higher to re-test support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel that had contained prices since August. A turn lower from here sees initial support at 5084.66, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
The DAX has yet to reach its measured resistance point of 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs from the March low would be equal. Potential resistance prior to that point is 5870 (50% of decline from 8152). The mentioned 6113 is reinforced by 6168 (former support line in gray).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The German benchmark index has pushed higher, breaking triple top resistance to pause ahead of 58185. Near-term support is seen at 57296, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
Similar to the DAX, the CAC 40 has yet to reach its measured resistance point of 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs from the March low would be equal. However, price is close and potential parallel channel resistance reiforces the current area as one that may provide the supply required to produce a reversal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The German benchmark index has pushed higher, breaking triple top resistance to pause ahead of 58185. Near-term support is seen at 57296, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
The IBEX has reached the January 2008 low. Former support is now resistance. RSI divergence warns of a trend change as well. Watch the trendline and top channel line as potential end points for the rally in the event that the advance continues. 1247 (100% extension) is also a level to expect a reversal if reached.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The German benchmark index has pushed higher, breaking triple top resistance to pause ahead of 58185. Near-term support is seen at 57296, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB index encounters resistance from channel midline. Additional levels to watch are 24916 to 26464. The 100% extension of the 12332-20702 rally is near the top of this range.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB has surpassed double top resistance at 23658.51. From here, prices target 24441.98, the top of a rising channel that has guided trading since early September.
European Stocks Rebound, Bias Still Favors Downside
October 6, 2009 at 3:07 am by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
WEEKLY STRATEGY
FTSE 100 Pivot Table
DAX 30 Pivot Table
CAC 40 Pivot Table
FTSE 100
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has reached the 100% extension of the 3461-4521 rally (5156). Parallel channel resistance at this level reinforces this level and increases the risk of a top and reversal. 5339 would be the next level of potential resistance.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE has found initial support at 4968.49, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and began to rebound a bit higher. Near-term resistance is seen at 5053.10, the 23.6% Fib. Beyond that, the bulls face support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a rising channel established from mid-August, now at 5142.96.
DAX
Long-term Technical Outlook
The DAX has yet to reach its measured resistance point of 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs from the March low would be equal. Potential resistance prior to that point is 5870 (50% of decline from 8152). The mentioned 6113 is reinforced by 6168 (former support line in gray).
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The German benchmark index found initial support at 54520, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and popped back over the 50% mark. Continued bullish momentum will aim for a test of the 38.2% Fib at 55654.
CAC 40
Long-term Technical Outlook
Similar to the DAX, the CAC 40 has yet to reach its measured resistance point of 6113, which is where the 2 bull legs from the March low would be equal. However, price is close and potential parallel channel resistance reiforces the current area as one that may provide the supply required to produce a reversal.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
French issues have seen bearish momentum lose steam ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance lines up at 3683.31, the 38.2% Fib level. A push higher beyond that will likely see a test above the psychologically significant 3700.00 handle.
IBEX 35
Long-term Technical Outlook
The IBEX has reached the January 2008 low. Former support is now resistance. RSI divergence warns of a trend change as well. Watch the trendline and top channel line as potential end points for the rally in the event that the advance continues. 1247 (100% extension) is also a level to expect a reversal if reached.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
Spanish shares saw selling pressure let up just ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, with the subsequent rebound on pace to re-test the 23.6% mark at 1160.15. A break higher beyond that will aim to test rising wedge support-turned-resistance, now at 1174.95.
S&P/MIB
Long-term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB index encounters resistance from channel midline. Additional levels to watch are 24916 to 26464. The 100% extension of the 12332-20702 rally is near the top of this range.
Short-Term Technical Outlook
The FTSE/MIB found support at 22657.08, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, after breaking past a rising trend line established from the swing lows in mid-August. A re-test of that trend line (now at 23070.94) may follow ahead before bearish momentum resumes.
