My Posts
Australian Dollar Continues to Firm
Euro / US Dollar A larger EURUSD rally, probably a 4th wave, may be underway towards 13870-14030. 4th waves are often choppy, usually flats or triangles. An impulsive rally from 13433 and corrective decline from 13738 may be complete. I cautiously favor the upside against 13530. British Pound / US Dollar After meeting resistance from former support / the 38.2% of the decline from 15825 / channel... [Read more]
British Pound Testing Potentially Strong Resistance
Euro / US Dollar A larger EURUSD rally, probably a 4th wave, may be underway towards 13870-14030. 4th waves are often choppy, usually flats or triangles. An impulsive rally from 13433 and corrective decline from 13738 may be complete. This is bullish but I am uncomfortable with long positions at this point with equities testing key resistance levels (another view is presented with the USDCHF). British... [Read more]
Euro / Dollar; Implementing a Stop and Reverse Strategy
Euro / US Dollar The EURUSD is either headed lower in a terminal thrust from a triangle or is headed higher following completion of a ending diagonal. Given the media’s focus on the euro decline, the latter seems more likely. From a strategic perspective, I like shorts below 13690 with a stop and reverse at that point. If the stop and reverse is triggered, then the initial objective is 13840. ... [Read more]
Canadian Dollar Strong; but Still above January Low
Euro / US Dollar The EURUSD continues sideways trend continues (although there was a spike below the 2/18 low last night). A break below 13440 or above 13700 is required in order to set a directional bias. A break lower would shift focus to the Fibonacci extension near 13100 and a break higher to parallel channel. British Pound / US Dollar The GBPUSD has plunged in what is clearly a 3rd of a... [Read more]
British Pound Plunges; Reaches Fibonacci Confluence
Euro / US Dollar The EURUSD has been unable to mount much of a rally since the low was made on February 18th. Staying below 13695 keeps the pair headed lower towards the Fibonacci extension near 13100. A rally above would expose 13800-40. British Pound / US Dollar The GBPUSD has plunged in what is clearly a 3rd of a 3rd wave decline (3 of 3 of 3 from 15831). Fibonacci extensions are just below... [Read more]
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Rally Confirms that Low is in Place
Euro / US Dollar No change: “The rally from 13443 may be the beginning of a larger 4th wave. The next major resistance is 13842. This does not mean that it is time to turn bullish however. 4th waves are often choppy and tend to form as flats or triangles. Range trading may dominate for the next several weeks. Coming under 13443 could also complete a diagonal from 13842. It is also worth... [Read more]
Canadian Dollar and Oil are Vulnerable
Euro / US Dollar The rally from 13443 may be the beginning of a larger 4th wave. The next major resistance is 13842. This does not mean that it is time to turn bullish however. 4th waves are often choppy and tend to form as flats or triangles. Range trading may dominate for the next several weeks. Coming under 13443 could also complete a diagonal from 13842. It is also worth noting that... [Read more]
Sideways Correction May be Underway in EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar I mentioned the possibility that the discount rate decline was a terminal thrust from a triangle and that suspicion has been proved correct as the entire decline from 13660 has been retraced. The rally from 13443 may be the beginning of a larger 4th wave. The next major resistance is 13842. This does not mean that it is time to turn bullish however. 4th waves are often choppy... [Read more]
US Dollar Consolidates Gains; EURUSD 13660 Defines Trend
Euro / US Dollar Perspective is of utmost importance when dealing with speculative activities and this EURUSD daily chart offers just that. Yesterday’s break may have been a terminal thrust from a triangle but the break also distanced price from the 100% extension level (13650), which increases . With price pressing the bottom of its channel, focus remains on the 161.8% extension at 13073 (which... [Read more]
Australian Dollar Testing Fibonacci Resistance
Euro / US Dollar The EURUSD decline below 13584 may have been wave b of a flat. As such, I can’t rule out a rally above 13842 or even a test of 14029 before the decline resumes. I am not however of the persuasion that the larger trend has turned up. I view the current rally as either wave iv within the decline from the November high or a smaller 2nd wave. Near term, coming under 13645 should... [Read more]
