Fundamentals, Oil & Gold
Oil Lower Ahead of Key US Data, Metals Positioning Hints Turn Lower
Wednesday, 25 Nov 2009 3:46 EST at 3:46 by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
Commodities – Energy
Oil Lower with US Durable Goods, Home Sales and Inventories Data Ahead
Crude Oil (WTI) $76.41 -$0.39 -0.51%
Oil has continued to inch lower, with prices now standing just ahead of support at the bottom of a falling channel that has confined trading since late October. A break past this juncture sees support at $74.44, the lower boundary of a minor channel established from the most recent swing high. Fundamentally, the release of US New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders data is likely to be of primary significance, with the former metric particularly interesting because America’s construction sector is the world’s single largest consumer of crude. The US Department of Energy is also set to release weekly inventory figures, with expectations calling for an upswing that may add to downward pressure on prices.
Commodities – Metals
Technical Positioning Hints Gold, Silver May See Bearish Turn Ahead
Gold $1179.05 +$9.65 +0.83%
Technical positioning points hints at a bearish bias with momentum studies showing clear negative divergence as prices push to record highs, continuing to test the upper boundary of a rising channel that has confined trading since the beginning of the month. Fundamentally, the slew of US data set to be released late into European hours is likely to matter most in the near term, with the trade-off between risky assets and the US Dollar set to remain the primary catalyst for price action. European and US equity index futures are trading higher, suggesting the yellow metal will remain supported for the time being.
Silver $18.74 +$0.23 +1.22%
The case for a bearish reversal is even more pronounced with silver as prices show sharp negative divergence with the RSI momentum gauge below key psychological resistance at the $19 level. The fundamental landscape is much the same as that of gold, with risk trends and the US Dollar being the primary drivers for the near term.
