Fundamentals, Oil & Gold

Oil Lower on US GDP Bets, Gold Eyes Fed Minutes

Commodities – Energy

Oil Inches Lower as Expectations Call for Down Revision to US GDP

Crude Oil (WTI)       $77.35       -$0.21       -0.27%
Oil prices have slipped lower below pivot support at $78.33 and now see significant support near the $75 level at the bottom the falling channel that has guided prices lower since late October. Fundamentally, the catalyst to watch is the second revision of US third-quarter GDP figures. The data is expected to show that the world’s top economy grew at an annual pace of 2.9% in the three months to September rather than the 3.5% initially reported, with at least some of the reduction accounted for by a lower personal consumption levels.

Commodities – Metals

Fed Meeting Minutes in Focus as Gold Tests Key Technical Resistance

Gold        $1169.80       +$3.70       +0.32%
Gold continued to test resistance at the top of a rising channel that has guided prices higher since early November. Besides US GDP, minutes from the latest US Federal Reserve policy meeting will be in focus with traders looking to gauge the likely lifespan of the central bank’s asset purchase programs. Much of the gold rally has been driven by expectations of a sharp uptick in inflation as the Fed effectively prints money to offer easing beyond record-low policy interest rates. Ben Bernanke and company have already started scaling back some of these programs, and any hints that further tightening is ahead in the near- to medium-term will likely weigh on prices.

Silver       $18.63       +$0.08       +0.45%
Silver has continued to consolidate below the psychologically significant $19.00 level, with the fundamental catalysts in line with those of gold. Significant support is seen at $18.02, with a move below that opening the door to challenge $17.22.