Technicals

Dollar Continues to Weaken; Euro Threatening Highs….Again

Euro / US Dollar

Until the EURUSD trades below 1.4625, the uptrend remains intact (channel support).  A higher 5^th wave would probably finish in the 1.5280/1.5330 area (1.5280 is former support and 1.5330 is a measured objective).  Even if the decline from 1.5066 is not impulsive, I would still expect consolidation at lower levels in what is probably a triangle (see alternate labels).

British Pound / US Dollar

The GBPUSD has been in a consolidation mode since late May.  Price has traded in a wide 1300 pip range since then in what could be corrective (continuation of strength) or distributive (reversal of strength).  A support line drawn off of the 10/13 and 11/3 lows has held and bulls are in control with price above there.  1.6625/70 is potential support.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

The next AUDUSD objective would be .9680 (where wave .v = wave .i).  This level intersects channel resistance on November 25.  .9275/.9305 is potential short term support.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

NZDUSD price pattern is bearish against .7640.  The decline from .7640 is impulsive and the rally from under .7100 is unfolding as a correction with wave b as a triangle.  In the event of additional strength, .7500/20 is resistance.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

The bigger picture pattern is constructive. Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008.  The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above).  One possibility from 88.00 is a leading diagonal as either larger wave A or 1 from 88 to 92.35.  A larger B or 2^nd wave is underway from 92.35.  That correction may be complete at the ‘panic low’ that occurred two Sunday evenings ago.  Still, the USDJPY has traded sideways since then so one must consider the possibility of a triangle since 89.17.  88.70 is potential support on a drop below 89.17.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

The USDCAD rally from 1.0200 is best counted as 3 waves unless one allows for a truncated 5^th wave.  The USDCAD turned up from just below the 61.8% of the advance from 1.0200.  Above 1.0600 would be bullish.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (just as the inverse).  The bullish count remains valid against the low (1.0030) (Friday morning spike would be a truncation).

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates at the DailyFX Forum.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.   Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.