Technicals

Moment of Truth for Euro / Dollar

Euro / US Dollar

The EURUSD is pressing against the October high, which puts the bearish bias is serious jeopardy.  Clearly, the pair needs to turn down now for the bearish bias to remain intact.  A new high would shift focus to 1.5280 (bottom of 2008 base) and 1.5329 (where wave .v – wave .i).  These 2 levels intersect channel resistance on November 18^th and the 24^th.

British Pound / US Dollar

The GBPUSD has been in a consolidation mode since late May.  Price has traded in a wide 1300 pip range since then in what could be corrective (continuation of strength) or distributive (reversal of strength).  There is a potential support line drawn off of the 10/13 and 11/3 lows at 1.6481 today (increases 37 pips per day).  A cautious bullish bias is warranted against 1.6250.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar

The AUDUSD has exceeded its October high of .9335 and focus is now on .9680 (where wave .v = wave .i).  This level intersects channel resistance on November 25.  .9205/45 is potential support.  Coming under .9150 would be bearish.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar

NZDUSD price pattern is bearish against .7640.  The decline from .7640 is impulsive and the rally from under .7100 is unfolding as a correction with wave b as a triangle.  A small 4^th wave (of c) triangle may be underway now.  A terminal thrust higher should encounter resistance in the .7500/20 area.

US Dollar / Japanese Yen

Maintain a cautious bullish bias against 88.00.  “The bigger picture pattern is constructive. Either a triangle or complex correction is underway since December 2008.  The next leg should be up towards 101.50 (maybe even above).  One possibility from 88.00 is a leading diagonal as either larger wave A or 1 from 88 to 92.35.  A larger B or 2^nd wave is underway from 92.35.  That correction may be complete at the ‘panic low’ that occurred two Sunday evenings ago although a drop under there would not require a change of the short term count.  In that instance, potential support is at 88.70.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar

The USDCAD rally from 1.0200 is best counted as 3 waves unless one allows for a truncated 5^th wave.  In any case, 1.0440 (former resistance) / 1.0460 (61.8% retracement) is probable support.  1.0540 is potential resistance.  Above 1.0600 would be bullish.

US Dollar / Swiss Franc

The USDCHF is in the exact same position as the EURUSD (just as the inverse).  The bullish count is valid against the low (1.0030) and a rally above 1.0115 would put bulls back in the driver’s seat.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning, COT analysis (published Friday evenings), technical analysis of currency crosses on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday (Euro and Yen crosses), and intraday trading strategy as market action dictates.  He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.  Follow his intraday market commentary and trades at DailyFX Forex Stream.  Send requests to receive his reports via email to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.