Fundamentals, Oil & Gold
Oil, Metals Positioning Points to Weaknes. Jobless Claims Key Ahead of NFP
Thursday, 5 Nov 2009 2:37 EST at 2:37 by Ilya Spivak · Leave a Comment
Commodities – Energy
Crude Oil Retests $80 Once Again, Jobless Claims in Focus Ahead of NFP
Crude Oil (WTI) $79.95 -$0.45 -0.56%
Oil continues to consolidate in familiar ranges, with prices once again testing resistance just below the psychologically significant $80/barrel level. Negative divergence on the RSI oscillator hints at a move lower from here, with initial support at $78.28. Fundamentally, US Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Claims data is likely to command the markets’ attention as traders brace for tomorrow’s all-important NFP jobs report from the world’s largest crude consumer. As always, broad trends in risk sentiment and with the trajectory of the US Dollar will be important as well, and to that effect, traders will be on the lookout for any relevant reverberations from the ECB and BOE interest rate decisions.
Commodities – Metals
Metals Push Higher as Fed Keeps Dovish Posture, Jobs Data Key Ahead
Gold $1090.19 -$2.00 -0.18%
Gold prices pushed higher to break out a minor rising channel, clearing triple top resistance just below $1070 to test new record highs near the $1100 level. Prices are now re-testing resistance-turned-support at the channel’s top with negative divergence on the RSI oscillator pointing to a likely turn downward. A break below current support opens the door for a test of the channel’s bottom below $1080. Fundamentally, the outlook for the US Dollar and things that affect it are likely to be of greatest interest, which primarily amounts to the US jobless claims data and to a lesser extend the ECB and BOE rate decisions.
Silver $17.41 -$0.05 -0.26%
Silver followed gold higher out of the narrow range between $16.11 and $16.75 to find resistance before $17.50. On the fundamental front, the outlook for the greenback and the overall trajectory of risky assets will likely prove most market-moving, putting the onus once again on US data.
