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Dollar Future Depends On Rates And Growth Beyond December

An interest rate is one of the key elements to valuing a currency; however, there are times when other factors are more important to the market. Considering the dollar’s consistent strength in the face of the Fed’s lowering the benchmark rate to 1.00 percent, this is one of these times.

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A Tentative Rebound In Risk Appetite Starting To Unsettle Congestion, Boost The Dollar And Yen

Dollar Finds Firm Footing In Risk Aversion, Relative Rate Forecasts

Technical Outlook

S&P 500 and Nasdaq's Break Of Near-term Support Could Lead To More Losses

Index Strat Risk Target
DJIA  Short  9160 7500
NASDAQ    Flat    
S&P500 Short
 952 715

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Fundamental Outlook

Stocks Remain Under Pressure, as Detroits Troubles Weigh On Markets

Equity markets fell to the lowest levels in over five years as worries over the possibility of one or more of the Big three U.S. automakers failing sent traders to the sideline.

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Technical Outlook

European Stocks Find Support, Aim Higher

Index Strat Risk Target
FTSE FLAT     
DAX    FLAT    
CAC 40 FLAT    

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Fundamental Outlook

European Stock Exchanges to Follow Wall St, Asian Markets Lower

European stocks look set for another down session following heavy loses on Wall St and in Asian trading.

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Technical Outlook

Australian Shares Plunge Comes Upon Major Support, Nikkie Threatens Breakout

Index Strat Risk Target
NKY Short 9,600 6,000
ASX    Flat    
HSI Short 2,055 <1,435

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Fundamental Outlook

Fading Risk Trends And A Tame Macro Calendar Leave Asian Equities To Larger Trends

Activity in the US trading session has set little precedence for price action for the Wednesday trade in the Asian markets. Looking to futures, the new trading day is set for a rather tepid open.

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Technical Outlook

NYMEX Crude Oil Breaks Key Trendline, Move to $46 Likely

The NYMEX Crude Oil contract has now "officially" broken below its 10-year uptrend channel, with today's tumble taking it below the psychologically significant $50 mark. Next targets are shaky due to the difficulty in using historical futures prices, but previous spike-lows seen in late 2005 come in at 46.20. At the minimum, we are looking for a move to test said mark, but a much firmer price floor can be seen at the psychologically significant $40.00 mark. The break of the long-standing trendline tells us that the secular uptrend is now over, but it does not necessarily mean that a long-term downtrend has begun. Instead, we could simply see a period of prolonged consolidation.

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Fundamental Outlook

Crude Oil Breaks the $50 Mark - What's Next?

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Weekly Technical Outlook

UK Gilts And European Bunds Market Major Bullish Breakouts, Treasuries Lag

Index Strat Risk Target
T-Note Flat    
Gilt    Long 113.20 118.00
Bund Long 117.50 121.50

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Weekly Fundamental Outlook

Interest Rate Expectations In Europe Tumbling As Recession Accelerates And Rate Cuts Grow Larger

Treasuries have risen over the past week as risk aversion has picked up. The rebound in investor fear would seem counter-intuitive considering some of the events that have dominated the headlines.

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Technical Outlook

Euro, British Pound, Canadian and Australian Dollars Likely Headed Lower Against US Dollar

Index Strat Risk Target
EUR/USD  Short 1.2861  1.20
USD/JPY    Short 98.31  80
GBP/USD  Flat    

The US Dollar looks likely to challenge key resistance levels against the Euro, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, and Australian Dollar through upcoming currency trade.

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Fundamental Outlook

US Dollar Testing More Bullish Waters, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Disappoints as Usual

Demand for US dollars remains high as investors seek out “safe haven” assets amidst increasing volatility.

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